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STOXX 600 flat, CAC 40 up 0.3%
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German-French bond yield spread widens further
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Dollar holds firm ahead of Fed meeting, U.S. CPI
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Oil prices stabilise after rally
(Updates at 0830 GMT)
By Alun John and Wayne Cole
LONDON/SYDNEY, June 11 (Reuters) - European assets found
some footing on Tuesday, a day after the announcement of a snap
election in France had driven them lower, while investor
attention began to turn to the double whammy of U.S. inflation
data and a Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.
Europe's STOXX 600 index was flat with France's
CAC40 up 0.3%, having tumbled 1.35% on Monday.
The euro was steady at $1.0767 after shedding 0.33% the day
before, but French government bonds remained under
pressure, and its 10-year yield rose 2 basis points to 3.26%
having jumped 8 bps on Monday.
With Germany's 10-year yield steady at 2.67%, the spread
between the two, a gauge of the premium investors require to
hold French debt rather than the euro zone benchmark, widened to
58.6 basis points , its most since
January.
The far-right National Rally was forecast on Monday to win a
snap election in France but fall short of an absolute majority
in the first opinion poll published after President Emmanuel
Macron's shock decision to dissolve parliament.
"Snap elections in France was a surprise and raises concern
over the reform process when the deficit picture in France is
already weak," Mohit Kumar, chief Europe economist at Jefferies,
said in a note.
"However, we do not think that political uncertainty opens
the door for instability in the Euro area or a break-up of the
Euro area. Hence, we would not translate a short France view
into a short Italy or Spain view."
Across the channel, investors were digesting data showing
Britain's labour market showed more signs of cooling in April as
the unemployment rate rose.
While this is unwelcome news for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak
ahead of a July 4 election, it could enable the Bank of England
to cut interest rates in August. Next week's inflation data will
offer a better guide however.
Investors in British mid caps welcomed the news with the
sector share index up 0.3%. The pound was down a
fraction against the dollar at $1.2723, though the 10
year gilt yield fell 2 basis points to 4.30%.
Elsewhere, markets gave a muted reaction to Apple's ( AAPL )
long-awaited AI strategy, which integrates "Apple Intelligence"
technology across a suite of apps. The iPhone maker's shares
shed 0.3% in after hours trade, having slipped 1.9% in normal
hours on Monday.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased
0.1%.
Moves in Asia were mostly modest, with MSCI's broadest index
of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipping
0.5% in thin trade. Chinese blue chips fell 1.2%,
having been shut on Monday, while the yuan hit a seven-month
low.
ONE CUT, OR TWO?
The biggest scheduled economic developments of the week are
due on Wednesday, with U.S. consumer price inflation and the
Federal Reserve policy decision.
The Fed is considered certain to hold steady at the
conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with the focus
on whether it keeps three rate cuts in its "dot plot"
projections for this year.
"We expect the dots to show two cuts in 2024, four cuts in
2025, three cuts in 2026 and a slight tick up in the longer-run
or neutral rate," said analysts at Goldman Sachs in a note.
"We think the leadership would prefer a two-cut baseline to
retain flexibility, but a one-cut baseline is a possible risk,
especially if core CPI surprises to the upside on Wednesday."
The consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to rise a slim
0.1% in May, but with the core up 0.3%.
Rate futures imply 38 basis points of Fed easing for this
year, compared to 50 bps before the jobs report.
The other central bank meeting this week is the Bank of
Japan, which might decide to taper its bond buying at a policy
meeting ending on Friday, as a step toward another rate hike.
Assuming markets aren't disappointed by the size of the
change, this could support the embattled yen. The dollar was up
0.2% at 157.38 yen, its highest in a week
Gold was just above one-month lows at $2,306 an ounce
, after getting whiplashed by the pullback in market
pricing for U.S. rate cuts.
Oil prices consolidated Monday's 3% rally, as investors
awaited monthly oil supply and demand data from the U.S. Energy
Information Administration and OPEC on Tuesday, and the
International Energy Agency on Wednesday.
Brent futures were steady at $81.62 a barrel.