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GLOBAL MARKETS-Global stock index falls, dollar rises as Powell dents easing hopes
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Global stock index falls, dollar rises as Powell dents easing hopes
Oct 2, 2024 9:52 PM

*

U.S. indexes end choppy session higher

*

Fed's Powell takes less dovish tone

*

Wall Street ends quarter, month with gains

*

Oil benchmarks fall the most in a quarter in a year

*

China shares surge again on stimulus rush

(Updated prices after U.S. stock market close)

By Sinéad Carew and Nell Mackenzie

NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - MSCI's global

equities index fell on Monday and the dollar rose as the Federal

Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dampened hopes for another big rate

cut, while oil futures ended flat after a choppy session on

concerns about an escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Global benchmark Brent crude, however, posted its biggest

monthly loss since November 2022 and its biggest quarterly drop

in a year, slumping 17% in the third quarter, as waning global

demand concerns overshadowed fears of the conflict curtailing

supply.

Stock trading was choppy after the Powell suggested that the

central bank was not in a hurry to cut rates. While some

investors had been betting on more substantial easing, Powell

signalled that the Fed would make two 25 basis point cuts this

year if the economy evolves as expected.

"That sounded less dovish than the market had priced in.

There were some expectations for a 50 basis point cut by the end

of the year. That comment probably took it off the table," said

Robert Phipps, a director at Per Stirling Capital Management in

Austin, Texas.

Wall Street indexes had rallied last week with help from

a benign reading on core U.S. inflation on Friday that had

boosted bets for another half-point rate from the Fed.

But on Monday traders saw a 36.7% probability of a 50

basis point cut in November, down from 53.3% on Friday,

according the latest reading on

CME Group's FedWatch tool

.

While stocks fell during Powell's speech, they regained

lost ground with the S&P 500 and the Dow registering record

closing highs on the last day of the quarter when many traders

make last minute adjustments to their portfolios.

"The price increases at the end of the day were probably

due in part to quarter-end-window dressing," said Rick Meckler,

partner, Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in

New Vernon, New Jersey.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 17.15

points, or 0.04%, to 42,330.15, the S&P 500 rose 24.31

points, or 0.42%, to 5,762.48 and the Nasdaq Composite

rose 69.58 points, or 0.38%, to 18,189.17.

For the month, the S&P 500 gained 2.01% and for the

quarter it rose 5.53%.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell

1.82 points, or 0.21%, to 851.02 for the day. For the month the

global index was showing an increase of around 2% and for the

quarter it was registering a gain of around 6%.

Along with the Fed commentary, Per Stirling Capital's

Phipps said that investors were monitoring the Middle East

fighting and

devastation

from

Hurricane Helene

, as well as an impending strike by

U.S. port workers

and news from China.

In Beijing's trading day, equities had rallied sharply

after China's latest round of stimulus.

China government stimulus measures announced last week

continued to boost stock markets, with the blue-chip CSI300

closing up 8.5%, its biggest daily gain since 2008

adding to its 25% run-up in the last five trading sessions.

The dollar rose after Powell's more hawkish tone lead

traders to pare bets for a big rate cut in November.

"He took his hawkish pills," said Steve Englander, head,

global G10 FX Research and North America macro strategy at

Standard Chartered Bank's NY Branch suggesting that the market

may be "beginning to worry that they're serious about doing 25

(basis point cuts)."

The dollar index, which measures the greenback

against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro,

rose 0.32% to 100.76.

The euro was down 0.27% at $1.1133 while against

the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 1% to 143.61.

In Treasuries, the yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes

rose 3.6 basis points to 3.785%, from 3.749% late on

Friday.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves

in step with interest rate expectations, rose 7.4 basis points

to 3.637%, from 3.563% late on Friday.

And a closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield

curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year

Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic

expectations, was at a positive 14.6 basis points.

In energy markets, U.S. crude settled down 1 cent at

$68.17 a barrel, but tumbled 7% in September in its biggest

monthly decline since October 2023, and slumped 16% in its

biggest quarterly drop since the third quarter 2023.

Brent edged down 21 cents to $71.77 per barrel. It

posted a roughly 9% drop in September, its biggest decline since

November 2022 and its third consecutive monthly loss, along with

a near 17% quarterly drop, also its biggest in a year.

Gold eased, taking a breather after a historic rally driven

by U.S. monetary easing and heightened Middle East tensions,

which puts it on course for its biggest quarterly gain since

early 2020.

Spot gold fell 1% to $2,631.39 an ounce. U.S. gold

futures fell 0.54% to $2,629.90 an ounce.

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