SINGAPORE, April 15 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on
Monday, attracting some safe haven bids, while oil prices were
choppy after Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel over the
weekend stoked fears of a wider regional conflict and kept
traders on edge for what comes next.
U.S. stock futures ticked higher after major indexes ended
sharply lower on Friday as results from major U.S. banks failed
to impress.
Iran had, late on Saturday, launched explosive drones and
missiles at Israel in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack
on its consulate in Syria on April 1, marking its first direct
attack on Israeli territory.
The threat of open warfare erupting between the arch Middle
East foes and dragging in the United States has left the region
on tenterhooks, as U.S. President Joe Biden warned Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. will not take part in a
counter-offensive against Iran.
Israel said "the campaign is not over yet".
Global markets struggled for direction early in Asia on
Monday after the weekend developments in the Middle East, as oil
prices edged broadly lower in volatile trade, gold jumped and
the dollar held broadly steady.
Brent crude futures eased 0.25% to $90.21 per
barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures
fell 0.35% to $85.36 a barrel.
Gold rose 0.7% to $2,359.92 an ounce, after having
scaled a record of $2,431.29 on Friday. The yellow metal has
climbed some 14% for the year thus far.
"Everything seems pretty well contained," said Chris Weston,
head of research at Pepperstone. "From a very simplistic
perspective, the actions from Iran haven't really surprised
anyone, they're very much in line with what we were pricing late
last week.
"What may be causing a slight move up in the gold price...
is the idea that we could see another counter response from
Israel, and if that was to happen... that could cause risk
(assets) to move down."
Elsewhere, U.S. 10-year Treasury futures edged
slightly lower with an implied yield of 4.53%, while the dollar
held near a 34-year high against the yen at 153.27.
The euro and sterling were similarly
pinned near five-month lows.
A continued run of resilient U.S. economic data,
particularly last week's hotter-than-expected inflation report,
has prompted investors to reset their expectations of the pace
and scale of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year as
inflation proves stickier than previously thought.
Futures now point to about 50 basis points worth of easing
expected this year, a huge pull back from the 160 bps that was
priced in at the start of the year.
That sea change in the rate outlook has in turn sent the
dollar on a tear and U.S. Treasury yields surging, with the
two-year yield rising above 5% for the first time
since November last week.
"We have updated our forecasts for the U.S. FOMC, pushing
out the timing of the start of the interest rate cutting cycle
to September 2024, from July previously," said Kristina Clifton,
a senior economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"The U.S. CPI has been stronger than expected over the first
three months of 2024. We expect that it will take a string of
inflation prints of 0.2%/month or lower to give the Fed
confidence that inflation can stay sustainably lower and that
interest rates do not need to remain at a restrictive level."
A slew of Fed policymakers are due to speak this week,
including Chair Jerome Powell, who could give further clarity on
the future path of U.S. interest rates.
In stock markets, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures
each rose 0.3% in early Asia trade, reversing some of the
heavy losses in U.S. equities on Friday.
All three major indexes had registered losses on the week,
weighed down by lacklustre bank earnings and the evolving
expectations for Fed policy.
"At the end of the day, what we're seeing at the moment is
the market is really trying to understand what's going on. Their
visibility to price risk in this market has become a bit more
troublesome, and I think when you don't have that visibility,
you do get higher volatility. That's kind of where we are," said
Pepperstone's Weston.
Bitcoin was last more than 2% lower at $65,547, after
falling below $62,000 on Sunday. The world's largest
cryptocurrency scaled a record high last month thanks to flows
into new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds and expectations of
imminent Fed rate cuts.
(Editing by Lincoln Feast.)