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GLOBAL MARKETS-Gold rises, oil choppy after Iran attacks Israel
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Gold rises, oil choppy after Iran attacks Israel
Apr 14, 2024 5:08 PM

SINGAPORE, April 15 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on

Monday, attracting some safe haven bids, while oil prices were

choppy after Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel over the

weekend stoked fears of a wider regional conflict and kept

traders on edge for what comes next.

U.S. stock futures ticked higher after major indexes ended

sharply lower on Friday as results from major U.S. banks failed

to impress.

Iran had, late on Saturday, launched explosive drones and

missiles at Israel in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack

on its consulate in Syria on April 1, marking its first direct

attack on Israeli territory.

The threat of open warfare erupting between the arch Middle

East foes and dragging in the United States has left the region

on tenterhooks, as U.S. President Joe Biden warned Prime

Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. will not take part in a

counter-offensive against Iran.

Israel said "the campaign is not over yet".

Global markets struggled for direction early in Asia on

Monday after the weekend developments in the Middle East, as oil

prices edged broadly lower in volatile trade, gold jumped and

the dollar held broadly steady.

Brent crude futures eased 0.25% to $90.21 per

barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures

fell 0.35% to $85.36 a barrel.

Gold rose 0.7% to $2,359.92 an ounce, after having

scaled a record of $2,431.29 on Friday. The yellow metal has

climbed some 14% for the year thus far.

"Everything seems pretty well contained," said Chris Weston,

head of research at Pepperstone. "From a very simplistic

perspective, the actions from Iran haven't really surprised

anyone, they're very much in line with what we were pricing late

last week.

"What may be causing a slight move up in the gold price...

is the idea that we could see another counter response from

Israel, and if that was to happen... that could cause risk

(assets) to move down."

Elsewhere, U.S. 10-year Treasury futures edged

slightly lower with an implied yield of 4.53%, while the dollar

held near a 34-year high against the yen at 153.27.

The euro and sterling were similarly

pinned near five-month lows.

A continued run of resilient U.S. economic data,

particularly last week's hotter-than-expected inflation report,

has prompted investors to reset their expectations of the pace

and scale of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year as

inflation proves stickier than previously thought.

Futures now point to about 50 basis points worth of easing

expected this year, a huge pull back from the 160 bps that was

priced in at the start of the year.

That sea change in the rate outlook has in turn sent the

dollar on a tear and U.S. Treasury yields surging, with the

two-year yield rising above 5% for the first time

since November last week.

"We have updated our forecasts for the U.S. FOMC, pushing

out the timing of the start of the interest rate cutting cycle

to September 2024, from July previously," said Kristina Clifton,

a senior economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"The U.S. CPI has been stronger than expected over the first

three months of 2024. We expect that it will take a string of

inflation prints of 0.2%/month or lower to give the Fed

confidence that inflation can stay sustainably lower and that

interest rates do not need to remain at a restrictive level."

A slew of Fed policymakers are due to speak this week,

including Chair Jerome Powell, who could give further clarity on

the future path of U.S. interest rates.

In stock markets, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures

each rose 0.3% in early Asia trade, reversing some of the

heavy losses in U.S. equities on Friday.

All three major indexes had registered losses on the week,

weighed down by lacklustre bank earnings and the evolving

expectations for Fed policy.

"At the end of the day, what we're seeing at the moment is

the market is really trying to understand what's going on. Their

visibility to price risk in this market has become a bit more

troublesome, and I think when you don't have that visibility,

you do get higher volatility. That's kind of where we are," said

Pepperstone's Weston.

Bitcoin was last more than 2% lower at $65,547, after

falling below $62,000 on Sunday. The world's largest

cryptocurrency scaled a record high last month thanks to flows

into new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds and expectations of

imminent Fed rate cuts.

(Editing by Lincoln Feast.)

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