SINGAPORE, March 19 (Reuters) - Japanese shares fell on
Tuesday along with regional markets, while the yen was steady
heading into a pivotal Bank of Japan meeting that could end
eight years of negative interest rates and usher in the nation's
first policy tightening since 2007.
In a week filled with central bank meetings across the
globe, the BOJ takes the spotlight on the day with all signs
pointing to the central bank shifting away from its ultra easy
monetary policy.
The BOJ is widely expected to set the overnight call rate
its new target and guide it in a range of 0-0.1% by paying 0.1%
interest on excess reserves financial institutions park with the
central bank.
The central bank may also ditch its bond yield control and
discontinue purchases of risky assets such as exchange-traded
funds, sources have told Reuters.
Japan's Nikkei was 0.73% lower, while Japan's
10-year government bond yield rose on Tuesday and
the yen was rooted at 149.26 per dollar ahead of the
decision.
"The focus of today's (BOJ) meeting should not be on the
rate decision itself but on its forward guidance," ING
economists said in a note.
"If the BOJ signals really slow and cautious steps ahead,
then the market is likely to be disappointed. There is a slim
chance that the BOJ expresses a hawkish tone in its guidance, in
which case, the market reaction could be quite substantial for
the yen and Japanese government bonds."
Analysts also point to caution ahead of the Federal
Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday and on possible tweaks by
the central bank to its projection of rate cuts for the year.
Dollar/yen traders are looking more intently at the Fed
meeting, and potential changes in the 'dot plot', as a
volatility driver, according to Chris Weston, head of research
at Pepperstone.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
fell 0.7%. China stocks fell, with Hong Kong's
Hang Seng index down over 1%, while the blue-chip shares
eased 0.3%.
CENTRAL BANK BONANZA
Investors are also awaiting policy decision from Australia's
central bank later on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia is
widely expected to hold rates steady with the focus on whether
policymakers decide to further water down its tightening bias.
While financial markets have priced in rate cuts for most
other major central banks starting around June, the RBA is a
notable outlier with no such mid-year pricing.
The Australian dollar slipped 0.21% to near
two-week lows of $0.6546 ahead of the decision. The Aussie is
down 4% against the U.S. dollar this year.
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady on
Wednesday, with the market's attention on policymakers' updated
economic, comments from Chair Jerome Powell and interest rate
projections.
Last week's stronger than expected inflation reports led
traders to reduce their bets of rate cuts this year, with
markets pricing in 71 basis points of easing this year. At the
start of the year, traders were pricing in 150 bps of cuts.
Traders are pricing in a 54.7% chance of the Fed starting
its easing cycle in June, the CME FedWatch tool showed, sharply
lower from earlier expectations.
"The Fed likely won't tell us if a June cut is the baseline,
but rather will continue to express confidence that multiple
cuts are still expected for this year," said Erik Weisman, chief
economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management.
Weisman said a lot will be riding on the next inflation
report due next month, where "another strong print would likely
call into question Fed cuts this year, while a lower figure will
probably put a June cut firmly back on the table."
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes
eased 1.4 basis points to 4.326% in Asian hours, having risen to
a three-week high of 4.348% on Monday. The elevated yields
boosted the dollar, with its index touching a two week
high of 103.67.
In commodities, spot gold was last at $2,159.10 an
ounce. U.S. crude fell 0.13% to $82.61 per barrel and
Brent was at $86.81, down 0.09% on the day.
Cocoa futures in New York and London gained more than 4% on
Monday to reach record highs, buoyed by a supply shortage after
poor crops in West Africa.
(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)