(Updates APRIL 12 story with reference to geopolitical risk in

paragraph 1 and China rate decision in section 2)

LONDON, April 12 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation numbers lit

a fuse under world markets and forced a sharp re-think on U.S

rate cut bets, so data and earnings should keep traders nervy as

they stay alert to possible Japanese intervention on the yen and

geopolitical tensions.

British data and China's latest numbers are also in focus,

as India gets ready to vote and finance ministers and central

bankers descend on Washington for the IMF/World Bank Spring

meetings.

Here's your heads-up on what's coming in markets next week

from Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rae Wee in Singapore, Bharath

Rajeswaran in Bengaluru, and Karin Strohecker and Naomi Rovnick

in London.

1/ TEFLON ECONOMY

Markets hastily ditched bets for a mid-year Fed rate cut,

with September now seen as the likely start date for easing as

sticky inflation underlies a strong economy.

That puts the U.S. consumer into sharper focus with retail

sales data due on April 15 and a slew of corporate earnings.

March retail sales likely climbed 0.3%, a Reuters poll of

economists showed. That follows a lower-than-expected 0.6% rise

in February that suggested a slowdown in consumer spending amid

rising inflation and high borrowing costs.

Earnings results that could also shed light on consumer

spending include Bank of America ( BAC ), credit card companies

American Express ( AXP ) and Discover Financial Services ( DFS )

and consumer products giant Procter & Gamble ( PG ).

Netflix ( NFLX ) and UnitedHealth Group ( UNH ) are also

reporting, as are luxury house LVMH and telecoms firm Nokia in

Europe.

2/ ON TRACK?

It's another week filled with Chinese data and this time,

investors get a first look at how growth in the world's

second-largest economy is shaping up.

First quarter gross domestic product numbers are due on

Tuesday, alongside data on house prices and retail sales.

Expectations are for the economy to have grown 4.6% on an

annual basis, a rocky start for Beijing in meeting its 2024

growth target of around 5%.

The devil is in the detail. Granted, there are some green

shoots from upbeat manufacturing and services surveys to rising

consumer prices, but persistent producer price deflation points

to a shaky recovery.

China's central bank on Monday left a key rate unchanged.

An ailing property market remains a drag - it's hard to

write off a sector that once accounted for over a quarter of

GDP.

3/ INDIA VOTES

India, the world's largest democracy by population, starts

voting from April 19 in national elections to be held in seven

phases until June 1. It's India's second-longest election, with

results expected from June 4.

Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a rare third

consecutive term, with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance

(NDA) expected to lead the Indian National Congress-led INDIA

(Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance).

Since the NDA won key state elections in December, markets

have rallied on hopes of policy continuity at the national

level.

India's benchmark stock indexes Nifty 50 and Sensex

as well the broader, domestically focused mid-caps

are at record highs, helped by sustained domestic

inflows and a strong economic outlook. A NDA loss, viewed as a

low-probability, could trigger a (temporary) pull back.

4/ SUMMER RATE CUT BOE

British inflation has slowed, putting the Bank of England on

track to start cutting rates from 16-year highs. Attention turns

to Wednesday's March consumer prices data to confirm the trend.

Companies' expectations for selling prices and pay increases

in the year ahead are cooling, according to a BoE survey that

its rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee monitors closely.

Consumers expect lower inflation too.

But ratesetters are divided over when to call time on their

battle against inflation, with no urgency to rescue an economy

that entered a shallow recession late last year before

manufacturing and mortgage approvals data signaled a recovery.

Traders, who had played with the idea of a June rate cut,

now expect easing to start in August. Some of that repricing is

related to the pull-back in U.S. rate-cuts bets.

5/ SPRING HAS SPRUNG

Finance ministers and central bank governors across the

world descend on Washington, DC, for the annual Spring Meeting

of the IMF/World Bank, starting Monday.

A raft of reports on the economic outlook and financial

stability will be released, while G20 and G7 policymakers also

get together.

There is no shortage of topics to chew over - the dual track

trajectory of a U.S. economy marching ahead while the rest of

the world more or less sputters - and all the monetary policy

and financial market consequences that might entail.

Whether central banks have really won the inflation battle

yet (IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva does not think so),

especially as Middle East tensions fire up oil prices. Or how

economies, especially emerging markets, will navigate still

elevated debt burdens.

(Graphics by Vineet Sachdev, Kripa Jayaram and Sumanta Sen;

Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; editing by Stephen Coates)