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JGB yields flat as market braces for BOJ's September rate hike
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JGB yields flat as market braces for BOJ's September rate hike
Aug 12, 2026 11:34 PM

TOKYO, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond yields

were little changed on Thursday, with the five-year bond yield

trading near a record high level, as the market braced for the

Bank of Japan's September rate hike.

The five-year yield was unchanged at 2.105%.

It rose to a record high of 2.12% in the previous session.

The two-year yield, most sensitive to Bank of

Japan policy rates, was flat at 1.64%, its highest level since

May 1999. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

"The yen has weakened against the dollar in the latest

sessions, so the market pricing for the September rate hike

remains strong," said Shuichi Ohsaki, a senior portfolio manager

at Meiji Yasuda Asset Management.

"The market now cares about the pace of the BOJ's rate hike

rather than where the terminal rate is. The September rate would

come a hike in June, that's once every three months," said

Ohsaki.

The expectations for the September rate hike grew after a

joint currency intervention between Japan and the United States

at the end of last month lifted the yen's value, raising bets

that the BOJ would have to raise rates soon to keep the yen's

momentum.

The market sees a 95% chance for the BOJ to raise policy

rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% by its October policy meeting

, while swap rates indicate about a 50% chance for

another hike to 1.5% at its December meeting.

The 10-year JGB yield rose 2 bps to 2.87%.

The 30-year yield rose 1 bp to 4.000%,

reflecting worries about Japan's fiscal health.

"The yen may not strengthen even as the BOJ raises policy

rates in September, as the market remains concerned about

government spending, such as a massive stimulus plan and the

food tax cuts, Ohsaki said.

The 20- and 40-year bonds have not been traded as of 0445

GMT.

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