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MORNING BID ASIA-China fires 'bigger guns, but still no bazooka'
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MORNING BID ASIA-China fires 'bigger guns, but still no bazooka'
Oct 3, 2024 1:14 AM

Sept 25 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Sugar high or shot in the arm?

That's the question for Chinese stocks and investor

sentiment which soared on Tuesday after Beijing, led by the

central bank, unveiled a package of coordinated monetary and

liquidity stimulus that packed a far more powerful punch than

previous piecemeal efforts.

It was China's biggest stimulus since the pandemic, and

domestic and regional markets reacted accordingly - Shanghai's

composite index jumped 4.2% for its best day since July 2020,

the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index hit its highest since April 2022,

and the MSCI emerging market currency index leapt to a new high.

All well and good. But can this short-term relief morph into

longer-term optimism that China's authorities are back in the

driving seat and steering the property sector, asset prices and

the economy towards sustainable recovery?

"Bigger guns but still no bazooka," is how Barclays

economists neatly summed up authorities' steps on Tuesday,

adding that the central bank may fire more salvos in the coming

months through interest rate and reserve requirement cuts.

Some analysts were quick to raise their 2024 GDP growth

forecasts closer to the government's 5% target, but most agree

that large-scale fiscal stimulus is needed to really change the

outlook beyond this year.

In the near term, however, the Chinese market rebound may

have more legs. Not only had Chinese stocks slumped to their

lowest in over a year, they have performed poorly in relative

terms against regional and global rivals.

Analysts at Barclays are tactically bullish on Chinese

stocks over Indian equities, while the divergence between the

S&P 500 and Shanghai CSI 300 index in recent years has been

frankly jaw-dropping.

The yuan climbed to a fresh 16-month high on Tuesday, and is

now within touching distance of breaking the 7.00 per dollar

barrier. For a currency as tightly controlled as the yuan, its

3.5% appreciation in just two months is remarkable.

Investor sentiment across Asia on Wednesday should also be

boosted by the S&P 500 hitting another new high on Tuesday,

albeit it only just, and a softer dollar and lower Treasury

yields.

Japanese stock futures point to the benchmark Nikkei 225

index opening 0.7% higher on Wednesday. That said, global growth

concerns - particularly over Germany - are percolating, which

could legitimately counter any sense of bullishness across Asia.

The regional economic data calendar on Wednesday sees the

release of Australian consumer inflation, which is expected to

cool significantly to 2.7% in August from 3.5% in July, service

sector producer price inflation from Japan and industrial

production from Taiwan.

Among the regional policymakers scheduled to speak are South

Korea's finance minister Choi Sang-mok and Philippine central

bank governor Eli Remolona.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Wednesday:

- Australia CPI inflation (August)

- Japan services PPI (August)

- Taiwan industrial production (August)

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