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MORNING BID ASIA-Green light from financial conditions, FX calm
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MORNING BID ASIA-Green light from financial conditions, FX calm
May 5, 2024 3:21 PM

May 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investor sentiment in Asia is set to open the week on a positive

note on Monday, buoyed by last week's upward momentum in global

stocks, calmer currency markets, and a general easing of

financial conditions.

The main regional calendar events include services PMI

figures from China and first-quarter GDP data from Indonesia,

while Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Paris for talks with

President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President

Ursula von der Leyen.

Investors will be hoping the rise in risk appetite following

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's relatively dovish steer on

the U.S. interest rate outlook on Wednesday continues into this

week.

Wall Street and the MSCI World index hit three-week highs on

Friday - S&P 500 had its best day since Feb. 22 - while the MSCI

Asia ex-Japan index climbed to its highest since February last

year.

Asian stocks' trough-to-peak rise in the last two weeks has

been an eye-catching 8%.

U.S. earnings have, on the whole, been strong and company

guidance generally bullish, the Fed appears reluctant to raise

rates again and signs of softer economic data are keeping hopes

of rate cuts this year alive.

Global and emerging market financial conditions eased

significantly last week, and are now the loosest since March 22,

Goldman Sachs's financial conditions indicators show.

Liquidity will be lighter than usual on Monday as London

markets are closed for a holiday. Could the Bank of Japan take

advantage and show its hand in the FX market?

The dollar plunged almost 5% against the yen last week on

the back of two suspected bouts of intervention from Japan, one

on Monday and one on Wednesday.

U.S. futures market data show hedge funds cut back their

historically high short yen positions in the week through last

Tuesday. That was probably accelerated by the yen's surge, and

it is not unreasonable to think that some froth from the wider

bearish Asia/bullish dollar trade has come off too.

Indonesia's GDP figures on Monday are expected to show the

economy grew at an annual rate of 5.00% in the first quarter, a

Reuters poll showed, slightly lower than Finance Minister Sri

Mulyani Indrawati's forecast of 5.17%.

But seasonal factors are expected to mean GDP shrank 0.89%

from the previous three months.

Indonesia's central bank last month delivered a surprise

rate hike in a bid to support the rupiah which had fallen to a

four-year low. Bank Indonesia's 7-day reverse repurchase rate is

now 6.25%, the highest since it became the main policy rate in

2016.

On the political and diplomatic front, China's Xi Jinping is

in Europe - his first visit to the continent in five years - and

trade is high on the agenda, with France's Macron set to urge Xi

to reduce trade imbalances.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- China Caixin services PMI

- Indonesia GDP (Q1)

- Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Europe

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