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MORNING BID ASIA-Resilience vs quarter-end caution
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MORNING BID ASIA-Resilience vs quarter-end caution
Jun 25, 2024 3:22 PM

June 26 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

The first definition that appears in an online search for the

meaning of "resilience" is "the capacity to withstand or to

recover quickly from difficulties; toughness."

In global markets right now, one word probably suffices:

"Nasdaq" or "Nvidia ( NVDA )."

Shares in the world's AI and chip darling roared back 6.8%

on Tuesday for their best day in a month, enough to recover the

previous day's slump, narrow the recent correction, and set the

tone for a tech-led rise in U.S. and global equities.

There was no fresh news or impetus behind the move, which

probably has as much to do with investors' book-squaring and

position adjustments as the end of the quarter and half-year

point draws into view as any thing else.

In that light, the direction Asian markets are liable to

take on Wednesday is hard to call. Will Tuesday's tech and mega

cap rebound spark a flurry of buying, or will investors still be

minded to limit risk exposure ahead of quarter-end on Friday?

There doesn't appear much from Tuesday's U.S. session, other

than tech's bounce, to give a signal either way - the dollar

rose a bit, Treasury yields were flat, and the tone from remarks

by two Fed governors probably leaned on the hawkish side.

Broader concerns about the weakness of the yen and potential

intervention from Japanese authorities, and the Chinese yuan's

steady depreciation, still hang heavily over Asian markets. The

lack of fresh news or developments on either front is unlikely

to change that going into Wednesday.

The regional economic data calendar is extremely light on

Wednesday, with only Australian inflation and manufacturing data

from Singapore set for release.

Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Christopher

Kent is scheduled to speak, while Thailand's central bank

releases the minutes of its June 12 policy meeting, and later

hosts an analyst meeting on the economy and monetary policy.

Inflation in Australia is proving to be much stickier than

previously envisaged. This explains why rates traders reckon the

RBA will be the most hawkish G10 central banks this year apart

from the Bank of Japan, and are only pricing in a one-in-four

chance of any rate cut this year.

The Aussie dollar is reacting accordingly - it is the second

best performing G10 currency against the U.S. dollar this year

behind sterling.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the annual rate of

weighted consumer inflation in May accelerated to 3.8% from 3.6%

in April. That would be the highest this year and the second

consecutive rise - not the RBA's preferred direction of travel.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Wednesday:

- Australia inflation (May)

- RBA assistant governor Kent speaks

- Singapore manufacturing production (May)

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