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MORNING BID ASIA-Tech tonic as world awaits BOJ fireworks
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MORNING BID ASIA-Tech tonic as world awaits BOJ fireworks
Mar 18, 2024 3:11 PM

March 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

The waiting is almost over.

The Bank of Japan delivers its potentially historic policy

decision on Tuesday against a backdrop of positive investor

sentiment after a wave of bullish tech sentiment offset higher

U.S. bond yields, and lifted stocks around the world on Monday.

Tech and megacaps drove Wall Street higher, led by

Alphabet's 4.6% rise - its biggest in four months - on a media

report that Apple is in talks to build Google's Gemini AI engine

into the iPhone, while Nvidia rose too ahead of its annual

developer conference.

With Japan's Nikkei already kicking off the week with a 2.7%

gain of its own and China delivering a broadly positive batch of

economic data on Monday, markets around the world are on a solid

footing ahead of the BOJ bonanza.

Apart from the decision and Governor Kazuo Ueda's press

conference on Tuesday, the Asia and Pacific calendar also

includes the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest policy decision,

so the Aussie dollar could be one of the most heavily traded

currencies along with the yen.

Indeed, the Aussie/yen cross, often a good measure of

investors' thirst for carry trades and global risk appetite in

general, could be the currency pair to watch on Tuesday.

Not only is the BOJ expected to raise rates for the first time

in 17 years, ending eight years of negative interest rate

policy, it may also call time on its yield curve control and

purchase of risk assets, Nikkei newspaper reported on Monday.

If the BOJ does make a triple-pronged moves on rates, YCC

and purchases of risky assets, Japanese markets could be in for

a wild rise on Tuesday.

As far as the yen is concerned, much will depend on the spread

between Japanese and U.S. yields. Hedge funds and speculators

have trimmed their short yen position, but it remains

substantial by historical standards.

There's a lot of scope for short-covering, but there may be

little appetite for that against a backdrop of dollar-supportive

spreads. Especially with the Federal Reserve announcing its

latest policy decision and economic projections on Wednesday.

Australia's central bank, meanwhile, is widely expected to

hold its cash rate at 4.35% for a third straight meeting on

Tuesday and at least until end-September, according to a Reuters

poll of economists who see at least two rate cuts in the final

quarter of 2024.

While financial markets have priced in rate cuts for some

major central banks such as the Fed and European Central Bank

starting around June, the RBA is a notable outlier with no such

mid-year pricing.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- Japan monetary policy decision

- Australia monetary policy decision

- Japan industrial production (February, final)

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