Oct 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Anyone hoping for a quiet end to the trading week in Asia will

be disappointed, as investors brace for a batch of top-tier

economic data on Friday that includes Japanese inflation and the

main event - Chinese GDP.

Other Chinese indicators - September's retail sales, house

prices, industrial production, unemployment, and investment -

will also be released. But all eyes will be on third quarter

growth and how close it is to the 5.0% mark.

That's Beijing's 2024 target, but most analysts say it will

be missed. The wave of fiscal stimulus measures announced

recently has come too late to boost growth this year but has

prompted some economists to raise their 2025 forecasts.

Overall, however, analysts remain pretty glum. Their

consensus forecast in a Reuters poll is that gross domestic

product expanded 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier,

slowing from 4.7% in the previous quarter.

For 2024 as a whole they forecast growth of 4.8%,

undershooting the government's target, and expect a further

deceleration next year to 4.5%.

Citi's Chinese economic surprises index has been inching

higher in recent weeks but remains firmly in negative territory,

where it has been since June. Investors are realizing that

Beijing's fiscal, monetary and liquidity support, however

successful they prove to be, will take time to bear fruit.

This is perhaps reflected in Chinese stocks' third decline

in a row on Thursday - Shanghai's blue chip index is down 15%

from its October 8 peak, although still up around 18% since the

first stimulus measures were unveiled last month.

Elsewhere in Asia on Friday Japan releases September

inflation figures, with economists expecting a marked slowdown

in the annual core rate to 2.3% from 2.8% in August. That would

be the biggest month-to-month decline since February last year.

It would also support the thinking of Bank of Japan

officials who favor a more cautious approach to tightening

monetary policy.

The BOJ will forgo raising interest rates again this year,

according to a very slim majority of economists in a Reuters

poll published this week, although nearly 90% still expect rates

to rise by end-March.

Japanese interest rate swaps traders are pricing in a 15

basis points rate hike from the BOJ in January, and only 35 bps

of tightening in total next year.

The global market picture looks fairly positive though. On

Thursday chip-making giant TSMC delivered an upbeat outlook and

U.S. economic data was strong, lifting the Dow to a new high.

Treasury yields and the dollar also rose on Thursday, which

is not so positive for emerging markets, however. The dollar is

its strongest in two and a half months and has appreciated in

all but two of the last 14 trading days.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Friday:

- China GDP (Q3)

- Japan inflation (September)