financetom
World
financetom
/
World
/
Morning bid: ECB, Swiss set to cut, but by how much?
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Morning bid: ECB, Swiss set to cut, but by how much?
Dec 11, 2024 10:03 PM

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

A momentous couple weeks for global central banks brings policy decisions from two of the biggest on Thursday: the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank.

Rate cuts by both are not in question, but how deep those cuts will be is still up for debate.

The Swiss central bank decides first, and market-implied odds are tilted towards a half-point cut to 0.5%, ramping up in recent weeks after Chairman Martin Schlegel invoked the possibility of a return to negative rates if needed to dampen investor appetite for the safe-haven franc.

At the ECB, a more-standard quarter-point reduction is seen as the most likely outcome, but the 15% odds on a half-point cut suggest that traders see it as a non-negligible risk. The balancing act for European central bankers is an economy teetering towards recession, even as some of the more hawkish officials argue inflation is still a concern given rapid wage growth and spiking services costs.

The potential for big U.S. tariffs come January and simmering political crises in both Germany and France - the heart of the euro zone - introduce additional uncertainty.

Whichever way the ECB goes today, further easing is undoubtedly coming: Markets are priced for reductions at every meeting until June, followed by at least one additional cut in the final half of 2025.

Some major euro milestones are being eyed by corners of the market, including pre-Brexit levels versus sterling and even parity with the dollar for the first time since late 2022.

The United States releases PPI figures later on Thursday, a day after an as-expected and not-too-hot reading of consumer inflation all but cemented in the market's mind a Federal Reserve rate cut for Dec. 18.

The Wall Street rally that followed the CPI numbers, pushing the Nasdaq above 20,000 for the first time, has spilled over into Asia, boding well for European shares.

Meanwhile, the yuan stabilised on Thursday after the PBOC set a slightly stronger fixing. It had come under pressure the day before after a Reuters report that Beijing was considering further depreciation to counter any U.S. trade war.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

-SNB, ECB policy decisions

-Sweden, Ireland CPI (both Nov)

-US PPI (Nov)

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
METALS-Copper rises for first time in five days on China buying, disruption fears
METALS-Copper rises for first time in five days on China buying, disruption fears
Apr 29, 2026
(Recasts to lead with LME copper, adds analyst comment) April 29 (Reuters) - Copper climbed for the first time in five days on Wednesday as Chinese buying and concerns over disruption to sulphuric acid and diesel supplies supported prices, even as industry data showed the refined copper market was in a significant surplus. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal...
London stocks slip as investors parse earnings mixed bag
London stocks slip as investors parse earnings mixed bag
Apr 29, 2026
(For a Reuters live blog on U.S., UK and European stock markets, click or type LIVE/ in a news window) April 29 (Reuters) - UK shares drifted lower on Wednesday as traders digested mixed earnings, before turning their attention to global central bank policy decisions, including the Bank of England. The blue-chip FTSE 100 index dipped 0.7% by 0950 GMT,...
Morning Bid: Whirlwind Wednesday
Morning Bid: Whirlwind Wednesday
Apr 29, 2026
April 29 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets Today marks the apex of a packed week of events, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and earnings reports from four of the U.S. mega-caps. Perhaps unsurprisingly, there's been some cooling of red-hot stock markets in advance, not least in...
GLOBAL-MARKETS-European stocks fall as traders wait for tech earnings, Fed meeting
GLOBAL-MARKETS-European stocks fall as traders wait for tech earnings, Fed meeting
Apr 29, 2026
(Updates throughout after European market open) * Microsoft ( MSFT ), Alphabet, Amazon ( AMZN ) and Meta earnings due * Trump unhappy with latest proposal from Tehran * Oil prices rise after reports US will extend blockade By Elizabeth Howcroft PARIS, April 29 (Reuters) - European stocks fell in early trading on Wednesday as investors struggled to find direction...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved