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MORNING BID EUROPE-Welcome to the cutting club, Kiwis
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MORNING BID EUROPE-Welcome to the cutting club, Kiwis
Aug 13, 2024 9:59 PM

Aug 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European

and global markets from Stella Qiu

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is known for a tendency to

surprise, and this time is no different.

On Wednesday, the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25 basis points

to 5.25%, surprising the majority of economists polled by

Reuters. It was its first policy easing since March 2020 and a

year earlier than its own projections.

As recently as May it was seriously warning of more hikes,

so the abrupt reversal was a head turner. RBNZ chief Adrian Orr

explained in a presser that "when the facts change, so do we".

It is the latest major central bank to ease policy,

following policymakers in Europe, Canada and Britain, and could

perhaps be a signal for those that are still holding steady in

the face of sticky inflation.

Yes, looking at you, the Reserve Bank of Australia who all

but ruled out any rate cuts this year.

The RBNZ seems confident inflation in New Zealand, which ran

at 3.3% last quarter, will be back in the target band of 1-3%

this quarter, and it does not need to wait for the actual Q3

number to act.

In particular, it also projected a cash rate of 4.92% by

December, meaning they see room to cut maybe two more times by

Christmas. Markets agree, having already fully priced in another

easing in October, with some chance of a 50-basis-point move.

The kiwi dollar duly slumped 1%, while key two-year

swap rates fell 11 basis points to the lowest since mid-2022.

Elsewhere, most Asian stocks are cheering data showing U.S.

producer prices rose less than expected, which stirred hopes

that consumer price inflation would be benign later in the day.

European futures point to a higher open ahead of

inflation figures from the UK, where the annual core rate is

seen slowing even as the headline number ticks up. EUROSTOXX 50

futures rose 0.2% and FTSE futures gained 0.3%.

Adding to the busy news flow in Asia was that Japanese Prime

Minister Fumio Kishida would step down in September, ending a

three-year term marked by rising prices and marred by political

scandals.

The yen strengthened slightly and the benchmark

Nikkei gave up gains to be off 0.2%, a modest reaction

to political uncertainty.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

-- UK inflation data for July

-- U.S. CPI data for July

-- Euro zone GDP, industrial production data

-- Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks

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