04:24 PM EDT, 08/15/2024 (MT Newswires) -- According to National Bank in its Monthly Fixed Income Monitor Update for August 2024, "while 75 more basis points of 2024 easing is the most probable outcome, OIS markets have left no margin for error as they've fully discounted three quarter point decreases".

But potentially problematic, at least in the short term, is lingering inflation uncertainty, National Bank said. It noted that with core prices accelerating in May and June, the most closely watched momentum indicator has picked back up and July data has the potential to erase all the earlier progress. 'Even if that were to materialize, the Bank might still feel easing is justified based on job market slack alone but we're not comfortable deeming that a 100% certainty. Thus, we still see some risk of one of the year's final three meetings resulting in a hold," National Bank said.