 
	ORLANDO, Florida, July 14 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY
Making sense of the forces driving global markets
By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist
World markets were, on the whole, pretty buoyant on Monday as
investors shrugged off U.S. President Donald Trump's latest
tariff threats over the weekend and braced for a deluge of
top-tier economic data from the U.S. and China on Tuesday.
While European and Mexican stocks did wobble on Trump's
latest trade salvo, the hits were minor. Risk appetite held firm
- world equity benchmarks inched up, the Nasdaq and bitcoin hit
new highs, and silver reached a fresh 14-year peak.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. Don't panic: Europe Inc cautions calm as bloc
tries to
avert 30% U.S. tariffs
2. Currency FOMO may yet draw U.S. investors
overseas: Mike
Dolan
3. Central bank independence needs a better defence
4. Why Trump's push for a 1% Fed policy rate could
spell
trouble for U.S. economy
5. Wealth funds warm to active management - and
China - to
weather volatility, report shows
Today's Key Market Moves
* World stocks tread water, with Wall Street's rise offset
by
general softness in Asia and Europe. European and Mexican stocks
fall on Trump's 30% tariff threat.
* Canadian stocks, spared from the latest threat for
now,
rise 0.6% to a new high of 27142 points.
* The dollar continues to recover, rising to a
three-week
high on an index basis. A sixth straight gain marks its best run
this year.
* Bitcoin leaps to record $123,236 before settling
around
$120,000. It's up more than 10% in the last week.
* Silver slips on the day, but not before hitting a
new
14-year high above $39/oz. The $40/oz barrier is in sight.
Resisting renewed tariff tensions
Markets started a busy week on a solid footing on Monday, as
investors withstood the latest escalation in Trump's tariff war
with two of America's largest trading partners, and dug in ahead
of key market-sensitive economic and corporate events in the
coming days.
After Trump on Saturday said he would impose a 30% tariff on
most imports from the EU and Mexico from August 1, the EU on
Sunday said it would extend its suspension of countermeasures
until early August and continue to press for a negotiated
settlement.
The euro and European stocks fell - the single currency
hitting a three-week low - but the declines were small.
Investors still appear to be optimistic that talks will
ultimately be fruitful and a palatable deal will be reached.
Trade figures from China earlier in the day were certainly
better than expected, although they were boosted by exporters
rushing to beat a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and
Washington ahead of a looming August deadline. Exports rose 5.8%
year-on-year and imports rebounded 1.1%.
The next couple of weeks will see bilateral U.S.-EU and
U.S.-China trade talks intensify as the early August deadlines
approach, and investors can expect a blizzard of headlines to
hit their screens. If Monday is any guide, investors are well
poised to weather the incoming storm.
Trade may have been the main narrative for stock markets on
Monday, but less so bonds, which also had the shadows of Federal
Reserve independence, Chair Jerome Powell's future, and renewed
weakness in Japanese government bonds hanging over them.
The U.S. Treasury market was mostly stable although the
30-year yield did flirt with 5.00% and hit a one-month high.
Government bond prices elsewhere came under heavier pressure,
particularly at the long end of the German and Japanese curves.
The 10-year Bund yield rose to its highest since early April
and the 30-year Bund yield climbed to highs not seen in almost
two years. Yields on Japanese government bonds surged back
toward the historic highs from May, on concern that an upcoming
election could pave the way for increased fiscal spending.
Investors' attention on Tuesday will turn to the monthly
economic 'data dump' from China, which also includes second
quarter GDP figures. Economists polled by Reuters expect the
annual growth rate to have slowed slightly to 5.1% from 5.4% in
the January-March period.
After that, U.S. CPI inflation figures for June will set the
tone for the U.S. trading day. Economists expect inflation to
rise moderately across all measures - core, headline, monthly
and annual - with the annual core rate regaining a 3% handle.
What could move markets tomorrow?
* Australia consumer sentiment (July)
* China house prices, industrial output, retail sales, urban
investment, unemployment (June)
* China GDP (Q2)
* Germany ZEW sentiment indices (July)
* Euro zone industrial production (May)
* Canada CPI (June)
* U.S. CPI (June)
* U.S. 'Empire State' manufacturing index (July)
* U.S. Fed officials scheduled to give public remarks:
Governor
Michael Barr, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Boston Fed
resident Susan Collins, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
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