(Updates with trading in the Asia session)
SINGAPORE, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Treasuries rallied on
Monday as impending U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China
drove investors into safe assets despite trepidation about
inflation risks.
Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields were down
nearly 7 basis points to 4.50% by midday in Tokyo and two-year
yields unwound an initial rise to be steady at 4.24%.
Treasury futures saw some early selling but were firmer
by midmorning, as were bond markets around Asia.
The overall market mood was jittery.
"Markets are less sure how to price growth versus inflation,
when it comes to tariffs," said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro
research for Asia outside Japan at Mizuho Securities in
Singapore.
"I expect it to get bumpy. There's so much tension and
uncertainty, markets don't know which way to price it ... it
really wouldn't surprise me if yields need to have a huge
repricing one way or another."
Tariffs, in theory, slow growth which ought to support
bonds. However, they also raise prices and potentially give
companies cover for further price hikes or for consumers to
start to expect price rises and press for higher wages.
Fed funds futures fell slightly in the Asia morning
to reflect doubts on the depth of future rate cuts. Futures are
roughly pricing a 54% chance of two cuts this year and 44% for
just one.
"Increased U.S. tariffs underscore our view 10-year
Treasury yields will rise to 5% as a second Trump term boosts
inflation," said, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at Bank of
Singapore, the private banking arm of OCBC Bank.