04:20 PM EST, 11/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange made a modest recovery Friday after Thursday's massive sell off as investors appeared to take a gauge on where markets and components of them might be headed to next, with many onlookers already awaiting what will be a busy week of economics in Canada, while Rosenberg Research was focused on the technical outlook for commodities.

The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 72.82 points, or 0.2%, to 30,326.46, having dropped 573.94 points yesterday from a day-prior record high. Sectors were mixed, with Energy up 2.2% and Info Tech up 1.3%. Among decliners, Health Care was down about 5.5% and the Battery Metals Index lost 4.3%.

Next week's data begins with October CPI data. CIBC Capital Markets Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld expects the report will "lack some fuel as gasoline prices abated", with a 0.2% monthly rise [and 2.1% year over year, both the same as consensus] leading to a tamer 0.1% rise on a seasonally adjusted basis. "The two core measures will remain elevated in year on year terms, but might be less so on a three-month moving average," he said. CIBC forecasts both CPI Core-Median and CPI-Core Trim up 3% year over year, compared to consensus of 3.1% and 3% respectively.

Elsewhere, RBC Economics said it too was close to consensus in seeing a 0.2% monthly rise for headline CPI in Monday's report, consistent with a decline to 2.1% y/y from 2.4% in September. RBC's 0.3 percentage point drop in the annual rate is largely driven by lower gasoline prices, while it added food inflation should remain elevated around 3.8%. RBC noted this is the lone CPI report between October and December Bank of Canada meetings, but said the BoC's "firm conditional pause and already elevated inflation decrease its importance for near-term rate moves". RBC continues to see the BoC on hold through the end of next year. It said recent monthly core measures have been neutral rather than soft at around 0.2% monthly for five straight months, with a similar outcome for October leaving three-month annualized rates close to 2.7% and annualized rates around 3%.

With commodities, gold traded lower late afternoon on Friday as traders turn cautious amid weakening stock markets and lower expectations for another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Gold for December delivery was last seen down $108.70 to US$4,085.80 per ounce.

But West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil closed higher after a Ukrainian attack on Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk suspended 2.2-million barrels per day of exports. WTI crude oil for December delivery closed up $1.40 to settle at US$60.09 per barrel, while January Brent oil was up US$1.39 to US$64.40.

Walter Murphy over at Rosenberg Research today published 'Technical Analysis' on commodities in which he noted the S&P GSCI Commodity Index remains in a trading range defined by 570-575 chart resistance and a virtually horizontal 2021-2025 support trendline that is currently just below 516.

"Not surprisingly," Murphy said, "the weekly Coppock Curve has been backing and filing in a narrowing range on either side of its neutral zero line since early 2024. The indicator is currently in an uptrend but could enter a topping process as early as next week. This would imply that the trading range for both the index and Coppock Curve will continue in the weeks ahead."

Meanwhile, Murphy noted, the 14-commodity S&P GSCI Equal Weight Select Index is engaged in its own trading range. "Since September, that range has been defined by 451 support and 496-504 resistance. Looking back to late 2022, the index has been largely contained within a downtrend channel. In recent weeks, the index has been attempting to break out above both the range and the channel. However, neither the 14-week RSI nor the weekly Coppock Curve have been particularly supportive of a breakout. This implies that any further strength in the weeks immediately ahead will be more of a last gasp rather than the beginning of a sustainable uptrend."

On WTI Crude Oil, Murphy noted that at 58.4%, Energy is the largest sector weight within the S&P GSCI Index. Within Energy, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil account for a combined 40.0% of that 58.4%.

In early October comment, Murphy had noted that, while WTI crude had been testing the lower edge of long-standing support, at US$71.25-$63.57 per barrel, it had not spent an entire week below that range. He said that has changed; this week would be the sixth straight week entirely below $63.57. However, he added, WTI crude has remained above key $54.40-$50.33 chart and Fibonacci support, though it did challenge April's $56.06 year-to-date low three weeks ago.

Murphy said: "The ability to hold support in the coming weeks should be helped by the improving weekly Coppock Curve. The indicator bottomed out four weeks ago, and it should move into a confirmed uptrend next week. Although a subsequent bullish bias is expected to continue well into January, the oscillator is not expected to pierce its zero line over that time span. This implies that an associated WTI new-year rally will be a countertrend move that will have a difficult time overcoming the $71.25-$63.57 per barrel range."

On gold, Murphy said action of the past few weeks in the precious metal has been "a bit of an eye opener", especially when viewed from the perspective of the daily chart of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which is backed by physical gold. On October 27, he noted, it gapped down from $376.81 to $371.59 per share. It then moved in a tight range between $370.84 and $360.12 until last Friday. Then, this past Monday, GLD gapped up from $370.42 to $374.78. According to Murphy, the resulting pattern is called an "island reversal," i.e., GLD's 10-day trading range was bookended/isolated by the gaps. He said an island reversal often signals a trend change; in GLD's case (and gold's), it is a change from a downtrend to an uptrend.

Murphy said an island reversal is not apparent on the daily chart of gold itself, but a similar trading range from October 27th to November 7th is. He added gold's Monday rally, decisively above $4,046 per ounce, is viewed as a breakout from the trading range and, therefore, the completion of a base. This was further confirmed by Wednesday's rally through a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of October's six-day decline; this paves the way for at least a test of October's $4,381.58 high.

"That is the good news," Murphy said, before adding: "The not-so-good news is that any upside follow-through will likely only be a short-term event. This is best evidenced by the fact that gold's daily Coppock Curve has begun a new uptrend even as the weekly Coppock indicator is peaking and could well be in a confirmed downtrend by early December. This suggests that the end of the next short-term peak will have bearish medium-term implications."

In last month's comment, Rosenberg Research noted that the $3,500 per ounce breakout point should be the primary focus for support, but that there was potentially solid intervening support in the $3,700-$3,600 range. As a result, it noted, the report targeted the entire $3,700-$3,500 as first support. It said that range remains highlighted on this month's chart as second support. Gold's just-completed $4,046-$3,886 per pound trading range/base is new first support, it added.

Murphy said it is also important to note that gold has posted a series of higher monthly lows since last November. A decline through last month's $3,819.57 low would end that string and indicate that the uptrend from last November's $2,536 per ounce low has been reversed, he added.

As for resistance, Murphy said, the Coppock configuration implies that last month's $4.381.58 per ounce all-time high will not be decisively breached. "Any challenge that does occur will likely prove to be a last gasp."