12:20 PM EST, 11/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange down 7 points at midday with most sectors lower.
Healthcare, up 2.1%, is the biggest gainer, followed by energy (+0.7%). Industrials, down 0.4%, is the biggest decliner.
Focus in Canada was on the release of the latest inflation data. CIBC noted Canadian inflation eased modestly in October, albeit only partly offsetting the pick-up seen in the previous month. It said with headline inflation remaining slightly above the 2% target, and with core measures continuing to average firmer than that, today's data support the view that the Bank of Canada will hold interest rates steady not just at the December meeting but into 2026 as well. CIBC noted the 0.2% increase in headline prices during October (0.1% after seasonal adjustment), saw the year-over-year pace ease to 2.2%, from 2.4% in September. However, that was a little firmer than expected (consensus 2.1%), and only partly offset the prior month's acceleration (year-over-year inflation was 1.9% in August). With the BoC no longer adhering to one or two "preferred" measures of core inflation, the average of the previously mentioned four core measures was 0.2% m/m and 2.9%y/y in October, with those figures little changed relative to the prior month.
CIBC added: "While headline inflation decelerated in October, the move was only broadly in line with expectations and it would take a longer period of easing price pressures, combined with indications of economic growth deteriorating again, to bring the Bank of Canada back off the sidelines. We continue to forecast no change in the overnight rate through to the end of next year."
RBC noted the BoC's preferred core measures were mixed, with the 'median' price growth posting just a 0.1% monthly increase in October while the trim posted a larger 0.2% gain. On a 3-month average basis, both remained above a 2.5% annualized rate and held at around 3% on a year-over-year basis, though they demonstrated further improvement from previous levels. Part of the rise in ex-food & energy prices in October came from a large increase in property taxes (incorporated annually in the CPI data in October) but by RBC's count, almost half of consumer prices were still growing at an above 3% rate over the last three months.
Overall, RBC said, October's inflation data aligns broadly with its baseline scenario. "The BoC has indicated the overnight interest rate is "about the right level" provided inflation and economic activity continue following the October projections. Given that backdrop, we do not expect further interest rate reductions from the BoC."
Separately, TD noted Canadian existing home sales increased 0.9% month-on-month (m/m) in October, partially reversing September's 1.6% m/m decline. Increases in B.C. (+2% m/m), Alberta (1.8% m/m), and Quebec (+2.7% m/m) helped lift national sales. Meanwhile, sales dipped in Ontario (-0.7% m/m), Saskatchewan (-4.3% m/m), and Manitoba (-5% m/m).
Canadian new listings declined 1.4% m/m in October. With sales rising and new listings dropping, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened up a touch. However, at 52.2%, the ratio remained below its long-term average, suggesting sub-trend Canadian average home price growth is in the cards for the near-term, TD sauid. Average home prices edged 0.2% m/m higher in October. Prices were up notably in B.C. (+1.3% m/m), Alberta (+3.3% m/m) and Quebec (+2.1% m/m), but declined 0.8% m/m in Ontario. Elsewhere, prices were flat, on average, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the Atlantic.
TD noted the MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, increased 0.2% m/m, matching the rise in average prices and marking the strongest monthly gain since November 2024. However, it was still down 3% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were up 0.3% m/m, while condo prices dipped 0.1% m/m, the smallest such drop since July of last year.