11:47 AM EDT, 10/24/2024 (MT Newswires) -- AbbVie's ( ABBV ) expected Q4 report on its phase 2 Empower 1 and 2 studies of emraclidine in schizophrenia will be a major catalyst, UBS said in a note to clients Thursday.

UBS said that due to the need for new schizophrenia treatments, a "statistically significant benefit across both trials should be received positively" while mixed data would be negative as it could imply that the company would have to apply for clearance to conduct a bigger study.

"In the event of a positive result, we could see the stock trading up [about] 4% to 6%," UBS said in the note. "If the data are a clear negative, the stock could drop [about] 12% to 14%, and we see this raising question marks on [AbbVie's ( ABBV )] BD strategy and the pipeline."

UBS said it's estimating a 60% probability of $2.9 billion peak sales for emraclidine in schizophrenia.

UBS has a neutral rating on AbbVie ( ABBV ) and $195 price target.

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