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Affirm's Gross Merchandise Volume Outlook Upbeat Despite Major Client Loss, RBC Says
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Affirm's Gross Merchandise Volume Outlook Upbeat Despite Major Client Loss, RBC Says
Aug 29, 2025 1:19 PM

03:59 PM EDT, 08/29/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Affirm Holdings' ( AFRM ) full-year outlook for gross merchandise volume was better than projected despite concerns around the loss of a major enterprise client, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Friday.

Late Thursday, the buy-now, pay-later service provider said it expected its fiscal 2026 GMV to be more than $46 billion. Affirm defines GMV as the total dollar amount of all transactions on its platform, net of refunds. GMV does not represent revenue earned by the company, according to a statement.

RBC said it was previously projecting full-year GMV at $45.6 billion, while Wall Street was looking for $45.7 billion.

"GMV guidance came in better than expected, which was a particular area of focus by investors as a major enterprise client is going to be removed in (2026)," RBC analyst Daniel Perlin said in a note to clients.

Earlier this year, Swedish fintech giant Klarna said it will exclusively provide installment loans on purchases at Walmart ( WMT ) , replacing Affirm.

Perlin raised its 2026 GMV outlook to $46.8 billion, expecting the metric to reach $57.7 billion in 2027, according to the note. RBC increased its price target on the Affirm stock to $97 from $75, with a sector perform rating.

Affirm shares were up 9.5% ahead of market close on Friday. The stock has surged 44% so far in 2025.

Affirm late Thursday swung to a fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $0.20 a share from a $0.14 loss a year earlier, while revenue jumped to $876.4 million from $659.2 million. Analysts polled by FactSet were looking for EPS of $0.12 and revenue of $837 million. GMV increased 43% to $10.4 billion.

The company set a new record in most of its metrics, Chief Executive Max Levchin said on an earnings conference call late Thursday, according to a FactSet transcript. "Our growth is accelerating and we are firing on all pistons."

"Affirm delivered a strong quarter with beats across the board," RBC's Perlin said. "We note that the company continues to shift its mix towards 0% (annual percentage rate) offers, which attracts a higher credit consumer, and continues to show favorable (30-plus) day delinquency rates."

For the ongoing quarter, the company expects revenue of $855 million to $885 million. The Street is looking for $876.4 million. Affirm pegged first-quarter GMV at $10.10 billion to $10.40 billion.

Price: 87.22, Change: +7.23, Percent Change: +9.04

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