LOS ANGELES, March 11 (Reuters) - The movie industry
celebrated "Oppenheimer" and other successes at the Oscars on
Sunday, but the coming months at the box office will likely
offer less to cheer about.
Strikes by actors and writers last year forced filming and
post-production work to shut down for months, leaving gaps in
this year's movie schedule.
Industry executives and analysts say the release calendar
for April lacks an obvious blockbuster on a par with last year's
box office hit, "The Super Mario Bros. Movie." The summer box
office will likely rebound, buoyed by such releases as "Inside
Out 2" and a third "Deadpool" movie, though the Christmas
cinematic offerings look sparse.
"I think '24 is going to be probably one of the worst of the
last three years globally," said Tim Richards, CEO of Europe's
Vue cinema chain.
So far this year, ticket sales in the United States and
Canada have been tracking 9.8% behind 2023, according to
Comscore. Analyst B. Riley Securities forecasts domestic box
office revenues would fall to $8.5 billion this year, a decline
of 5% from 2023.
At Walt Disney ( DIS ), CEO Bob Iger recently spoke about
the studio's renewed emphasis on quality over quantity. The
company has 10 movies on its release schedule this year.
Disney's ( DIS ) Marvel Studios, which had been releasing two to
three movies per year, has just one set for 2024. "Deadpool &
Wolverine" will hit theaters in July.
Comcast Corp's ( CMCSA ) Universal Pictures plans a dozen
releases, including the fourth installment in Illumination's
$2.6 billion animated film franchise, "Despicable Me."
It is possible other films could be announced when theater
operators gather in April at the annual CinemaCon convention in
Las Vegas.
"I think it's going to be a catch-up game," Box Office Pro
senior analyst Shawn Robbins said of 2024. The industry is still
trying to claw back to the pre-pandemic record of close to $11.9
billion set in 2018.
Not everyone is convinced of the box office's downward
trajectory.
"The outlook by the prognosticators is overly negative,"
said IMAX ( IMAX ) CEO Richard Gelfond. "I think that if you
line up the '23 slate against the '24 slate, it looks very
similar to me."
Gelfond said he sees a number of films with strong box
office potential, including "Deadpool & Wolverine," "Despicable
Me 4," "Joker: Foile a Deux" and "Wicked."
Richards said European theaters would benefit this year from
locally made films.
"We've seen some record-breaking films in Italy. We've seen
the same thing in Poland and Germany and even the Netherlands.
But it's not enough to compensate for what's missing from
Hollywood," Richards said.
Cinema operators and studios are optimistic about 2025, when
many strike-delayed films will be ready. Richards noted that
Apple TV+ and Amazon ( AMZN ) have made major
commitments to theatrical films alongside the traditional
studios.
"It's looking like it's going to be a very interesting '25
and '26," Richards said.