08:00 PM EDT, 09/24/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Air Canada ( ACDVF ) early Wednesday evening provided certain estimated results for the third quarter of 2025 and updated full year 2025 guidance, which was suspended in August 2025. Air Canada ( ACDVF ) also provided an estimate of the financial impact of the labour disruption in August by the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), the union representing cabin crew.

On Q3 2025 estimated results, Air Canada ( ACDVF ) anticipates, for the quarter ending September 30, 2025: Operated capacity to decline by near 2% from the same period in 2024 as a result of the cancellation of more than 3,200 flights; Operating income between $250 million and $300 million, which includes near $175 million from one-time non-cash pension plan amendments and other labour related charges and adjusted EBITDA between $950 million and $1 billion. Air Canada's ( ACDVF ) operating income totalled $1.040 billion and adjusted EBITDA $1.523 billion for the third quarter of 2024.

Air Canada ( ACDVF ) said the financial impact of the labour disruption, which included an unlawful strike, is estimated to be $375 million in operating income and adjusted EBITDA. It added this amount is derived from the combination of three components. First, the revenue impact is estimated to be $430 million, mainly due to refunds issued to customers, customer compensation and lower than expected travel bookings in August and early September. Second, $145 million in costs are estimated to have been avoided due to less flying activity, largely attributable to lower fuel expenses. Third, the cost avoidance was partially offset by an estimated $90 million of incremental costs associated with reimbursements to customers for out-of-pocket expenses and labour-related operating costs.

In its updated outlook, Air Canada ( ACDVF ) is restoring and updating its full year 2025 financial and capacity guidance to reflect the financial and operational impact of the CUPE labour disruption and its expectations for the remainder of 2025, as follows: adjusted EBITDA of $2.9-$3.1 billion, down from $3.2-$3.6 billion in prior guidance; and ASM capacity of 0.5% to 1.5% increase versus 2024, compared to a 1% to 3% increase versus 2024 previously seen.

Air Canada ( ACDVF ) also now flags Adjusted CASM 14.60 cents to 14.70 cents, compared to 14.25 cents to 14.50 cents previously; and free cash flow of negative $50 million to $150 million versus break even plus or minus $200 million.

The airline said it made assumptions in providing its guidance, including a marginal Canadian GDP growth for 2025. Air Canada ( ACDVF ) now assumes the Canadian dollar will trade, on average, at C$1.39 per U.S. dollar for the full year 2025 and that the price of jet fuel will average C$0.92 per litre for the full year 2025.