* Iran war raises fuel costs, disrupts airspace
* Airlines test how far fares can rise
* Aircraft delays deepen pressure on margins
By Rajesh Kumar Singh and Allison Lampert
RIO DE JANEIRO, June 6 (Reuters) - Global airline chiefs
open their annual summit in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday facing a
sharper test of the industry's post-pandemic recovery, as the
Iran war drives up fuel costs and disrupts airspace while
carriers try to cushion the blow with higher fares and tighter
capacity.
The June 6-8 annual meeting of the International Air
Transport Association (IATA) comes as that fuel shock collides
with another problem airlines cannot quickly fix: a shortage of
new aircraft.
Boeing ( BA ) and Airbus delivery delays have
forced many carriers to keep older, less fuel-efficient jets in
service for longer, raising maintenance and fuel bills just as
oil prices have climbed.
IATA, which represents more than 370 airlines accounting for
about 85% of global air traffic, had forecast a record $41
billion in net profit this year for the industry before the war.
Industry executives and analysts expect that outlook to be
lowered at the meeting.
A Deloitte survey of 21 global airline CEOs published this
week found that fuel price volatility and inflation sit at the
top of the industry's risk agenda, pushing carriers to focus
more heavily on cost control and financial health.
"Together, they've turned what was supposed to be a record
year into a fight for margin," the survey said.
Airlines have two primary costs: fuel and labor. Sudden
increases in fuel are hard to absorb because many tickets are
sold weeks or months before travel. Longer routes also burn more
fuel and make aircraft and crews less efficient.
The challenge is how much of the latest fuel hit can be
passed on to travelers before higher fares start to weaken
demand.
FARE POWER
So far, travel demand has held up in several large markets,
especially among premium and corporate travelers, giving
carriers more room to raise fares.
In the United States, domestic published fares as of May 25
showed robust demand and successful pass-through of higher fuel
costs, with one-week-out fares up 35.8% year-on-year and
four-week-out fares up 39.4%, according to Raymond James.
"The willingness to pay over the past few years, crisis
and no crisis, from the premium side has been really strong, and
we see that strength continuing," Alexandre Lefevre, Air
Canada's ( ACDVF ) vice president of network planning and global
sales, told Reuters.
Still, there are limits. Higher fares can help airlines
recover part of their fuel bill, but they also risk pushing out
travelers with tighter budgets. That risk is greater in regions
where currencies are weak, consumer spending is under pressure
or airlines lack the pricing power of large network carriers.
Some carriers are still planning for growth. Singapore
Airlines is in talks for at least 50 large wide-body
jets, while Qantas is weighing an order for about 20
Airbus or Boeing ( BA ) wide-body aircraft, Reuters reported this week.