CHICAGO, April 9 (Reuters) - The global airline industry
is facing a summer squeeze, with travel demand expected to
surpass pre-pandemic levels while aircraft deliveries drop
sharply due to production problems at Boeing ( BA ) and Airbus
.
Air carriers are spending billions on repairs to keep flying
older, less fuel-efficient jets, and paying a premium to secure
aircraft from lessors. But some carriers are still being forced
to trim their schedules to cope with the lack of available
planes. At the same time, the number of travelers globally is
set to hit historic levels, with 4.7 billion people expected to
travel in 2024 compared with 4.5 billion in 2019.
"We can expect a strong performance from airlines throughout
the summer with some particularly high airfare," said John
Grant, senior analyst at travel data firm OAG.
Last December, the International Air Transport Association
(IATA) had predicted a 9% annual growth in global airline
capacity this year. That estimate looks optimistic following
Boeing's ( BA ) safety crisis.
Passenger carriers will receive 19% fewer aircraft this year
than they expected because of production issues at Boeing ( BA ) and
Airbus, said Martha Neubauer, senior associate at AeroDynamic
Advisory.
U.S. carriers will receive 32% fewer aircraft than planned a
year ago because several airlines depend on Boeing's ( BA ) 737 MAX
planes, Neubauer said. Boeing's ( BA ) production has been curbed after
a January mid-air panel blowout.
Boeing ( BA ) is reeling from a sprawling crisis that erupted after
the Jan. 5 Alaska Airlines blowout. Regulators have put
a cap on production of the 737 MAX, but the company is not
hitting even that level.
As many as 650 Airbus A320neo jets could be grounded in the
first half of 2024 for inspections to deal with a flaw with RTX
Corp's ( RTX ) Pratt & Whitney engines, RTX said last year.
In Europe, low-cost airline Ryanair has cut some
routes. In the United States, United and Southwest ( LUV )
have cut back flying and adjusted hiring and staffing
plans.
LEASING MARKET BOOMS
Analysts expect capacity at most U.S. carriers in the second
quarter to grow at a slower pace than a year ago. Airlines will
update their growth plans and explain how they will offset
capacity constraints when they report quarterly results,
starting on Wednesday with Delta Air Lines ( DAL ).
Due to the shortage of new planes, the aircraft leasing
market is booming. Data from Cirium Ascend Consultancy shows
that lease rates for new Airbus A320-200neo and Boeing 737-8 MAX
aircraft have hit $400,000 per month, the highest since
mid-2008.
Airlines are spending 30% more on aircraft leases than
before the pandemic, said John Heimlich, chief economist at
Airlines for America (A4A) that represents major U.S. carriers.
They are also holding on to jets that are past their useful
economic lives and require heavy maintenance that now takes
several months, Heimlich said. Repair costs at United, Delta
and American were up 40% last year from 2019.
Increased leasing, repair and labor costs will bite in to
profit despite the high demand, Heimlich said. U.S. passenger
airlines posted a pretax margin of 4.5% last year, with the bulk
of contribution coming from Delta and United.
Fewer Americans are planning to travel on a plane this
summer compared with a year ago due to high inflation, a survey
by travel website the Vacationer showed. Airline fares are down
year-on-year, but have been rising month-on-month.