June 7 (Reuters) - Investors are scouring U.S. credit
card spending patterns to size up which, if any, trends could
give specialty retailers a boost in the summer months.
Recent quarterly results from retailers show shoppers are
selectively buying non-essential, nice-to-have products -
forgoing electronics, but not being shy about plunking down cash
on those wide-legged jeans they've been coveting.
That's been good for sales of in-vogue products such as
Birkenstock's ( BIRK ) shoes, Abercrombie and Fitch's ( ANF )
jeans and Vuori's athleisure clothing - and less so for products
from Home Depot ( HD ) and Best Buy ( BBY ).
"Consumers are being choosier about where and when they
spend. They are seemingly willing to splurge on items that are
not inexpensive, be (it) a pair of Hokas or Birkenstocks," said
research firm Emarketer analyst Zak Stambor.
Demand for on-trend products boosted sales growth in
clothing by 3.2%, sports goods by 1.9% and footwear by 0.4% in
the first quarter of 2024, compared to a year earlier, according
to market research firm GlobalData.
But big-ticket items, particularly related to living
spaces, fell off consumers' shopping lists. Sales of electronics
fell 1.9% for the quarter, while homeware purchases dropped
4.2% during the first quarter, versus the year earlier period.
"Outdoor grills, patio sets ...televisions, couches, beds,
it's all been a bit challenging as of late," Telsey Advisory
Group analyst Joseph Feldman said. "There was a pull-forward of
demand during the pandemic and we're still kind of coming off of
that high and so you're still seeing some softness there."
That divergence is evident in retailers' share prices.
Abercrombie & Fitch ( ANF ) shares have nearly doubled this year, while
Home Depot's ( HD ) stock is down 4.5%.
RETAILER RELEVANCE
Last week, Nordstrom ( JWN ) executives said the company's
first-quarter sales growth in active-clothing and -footwear was
led by a few hot brands, citing Vuori, Hoka and Adidas. The
department store chain set aside designated space in its stores
to tout Roger Federer-backed On sneakers, Sam Edelman sandals
and Birkenstocks.
Across the U.S. retail landscape, "some of the stronger
retailers are doing well. And then some of the brands that are
putting out innovative products are doing well. And then others
like department stores (are) just consistently trying to find a
way to be relevant," Morningstar analyst David Swartz said.
Dick's Sporting Goods noted in a conference call
with investors that it plans to continue its strategy of
offering sought-after brands such as Hoka and On Holding's ( ONON )
sneakers.
Last week, the sporting goods retailer raised its annual
profit and sales forecasts on robust demand for footwear and
athletic apparel. Its shares are up nearly 45% this year.
Other retailers including VF Corp ( VFC ), Victoria's Secret and
Under Armour ( UAA ), have not seen demand bounce back, according to
analysts who said shoppers may feel less urgency to shop at
their stores.
The three retail chains, which saw sales declines in the
recent quarter compared to a year ago, are adjusting their
merchandise to better attract shoppers.
Under Armour's ( UAA ) founder Kevin Plank, who returned as the
company's CEO in April said, "This is not where I envisioned
Under Armour ( UAA ) playing at this point in our journey. That said,
we'll use this turbulence to reconstitute our brand and
business."
After the mixed start to the year for retailers, credit card
data is offering investors clues on which products and brands
were hot or not as summer got underway.
Consumer Edge, a New York-based research firm with hedge
fund and private equity clients, said it analyzed data of about
40 million U.S. credit card transactions to find winners and
losers in the retail landscape. Shoppers spent about 30% more on
Vuori activewear over the six months through May 28, compared to
a year earlier, and 25% more on Skims underwear, it said.
Skims is an underwear clothing company owned by Kim
Kardashian, which is expected to go public later this year or in
2025. Last year, Reuters reported Skims was in talks with
investment firm Wellington Management to lead a new funding
round valuing the company at about $4 billion.
Spending on Abercrombie & Fitch ( ANF ) products, and on Hoka and On
Holding ( ONON ) shoes, also rose from a year ago, according to Consumer
Edge.
However, it said spending on Victoria's Secret products
was down in the mid-single digit percentage range, Under Armour ( UAA )
saw a high-single digit fall and North Face was down mid-double
digits.
In clothing and shoes, "newer, more niche companies are
doing better and we see that they are taking share from the more
established players," Consumer Edge Head of Insights Michael
Gunther said.