* Manufacturing boom uneven, some sectors thrive while

others struggle

* Local developments increase land prices, taxes, and

labor scarcity

* White House says new investments, slowing job losses

are early signs of broader turnaround

By Timothy Aeppel and Jarrett Renshaw

SOUTH BEND, Indiana, March 26 (Reuters) - One of his

best customers recently asked John Axelberg to invest $800,000

to double the output of the tubular frames his factory here

churns out for large-scale solar energy farms.

He said no.

Although the solar side of Axelberg's small metal forming

business fueled all of his company's nearly 30% revenue growth

last year, bolstered by tax incentives in the Inflation

Reduction Act passed under President Joe Biden, all the other

industries he serves - including farm equipment and heavy trucks

- were off a collective 20%. And he worries about solar.

President Donald Trump often says his policies are unleashing a

new American factory boom. Yet in industrial communities like

South Bend, the reality is more nuanced: government policies are

lifting some sectors while clouding the outlook for others,

leaving many manufacturers navigating a patchwork of incentives,

tariffs and shifting signals from Washington.

Trump's stewardship of the economy has emerged as a political

pain point for him and Republicans in recent polling with

critical midterm elections just over seven months away. Just 29%

of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll approve of his economic

leadership, the lowest of either of Trump's presidential

administrations and lower than any economic approval rating of

his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden.

Case in point: Axelberg faces far higher costs for the metal and

imported parts he uses because of tariffs, while one of the

current administration's first acts was curbing construction of

solar farms on federal lands.

"I have no confidence that he won't just pass another

executive order and start coming after the (solar) credits we've

received and try to claw them back," said the CEO of General

Stamping & Metalworks, a family-owned business with sales of

$130 million that's been bending metal since 1922.

Pierre Yared, acting chair of President Trump's Council of

Economic Advisers, pointed to improved manufacturing

productivity, increases in new plant and equipment investment

activity and a slowing of the pace of manufacturing job losses

as early signs that administration policies will pay off.

"However, given the nature of these investments, it takes

time to get production online, and therefore it will be some

more time before we fully materialize the benefits of the

President's policies," Yared said.

MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE ELUSIVE

Few places better illustrate the sharp divide between a few

booming niches and a lingering malaise in manufacturing than

South Bend, a once thriving industrial hub that has struggled

for six decades to regain its economic footing after the closure

of Studebaker's sprawling auto plant here in 1964. Many

established manufacturers here are treading water--or facing

erosion in key sectors, including businesses that boomed as a

result of the last administration's policies, like electric

vehicles.

Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University who

studies the factory sector, said "there's no evidence of a

manufacturing renaissance." Instead, it looks like the sector

has been in decline for the last 10 to 11 months.

Defense is one business that is doing well. Humvee maker AM

General, based here, recently built a new plant to serve a $8.7

billion U.S. defense contract to build a new generation of

military vehicles.

And Cleveland-Cliffs ( CLF ) operates a steel processing complex

that should benefit from tariffs, which have pushed up domestic

steel prices. CEO Lourenco Goncalves said in a release

announcing the company's earnings last February that the taxes

will bring about "a new golden era and a manufacturing

renaissance that will make America strong again."

Up the road from the steel plant, there's a surge of

construction where Amazon ( AMZN ) is building an $11 billion data center

that will eventually have 30 buildings. Data centers aren't

manufacturing plants, but they need vast amounts of machinery

and raw materials that fuel other goods producers. Once built,

they don't create many permanent jobs. Spending on data centers

was over an estimated half a trillion dollars last year,

according to the Federal Reserve, and the splurge is expected to

"increase dramatically" through 2030.

Across the street from Amazon ( AMZN ), there's a $3.5 billion

GM-Samsung joint venture under construction to make electric car

batteries.

But the data center frenzy has sparked a fierce backlash and

made land prices around the new developments "nutso," according

to South Bend Regional Chamber CEO Jeff Rea.

Skilled labor has grown scarce, and the big developments

have driven up taxes and utilities for many long-time producers.

The GM plant, meanwhile, faces headwinds from Trump's anti-EV

push. The automaker said it has slowed construction and no

longer has a target date for opening.

Stuart Fowle, a GM spokesman, said "current market

conditions give us more time to observe EV demand and plan for

our future needs."

The White House keeps a running list of new U.S. investments in

manufacturing and innovation on its website, which includes

Apple's announcement of a $600 billion investment in factories

and workforce training and Meta's plan to spend the same amount

by 2028 to support AI technology and infrastructure in the U.S.

And yet South Bend has seen factory jobs drift downward since

the end of 2020--shedding over 1,000 workers, 265 of those since

President Trump took office. The same pattern holds across the

country. U.S. manufacturing jobs have declined by 100,000 since

Trump's inauguration, according to the Bureau of Labor

Statistics.

'WHIMS OF A KING'?

To be sure, there are big projects underway across the

industrial heartland. But the boom began during the Biden

administration, including massive new investments in

semiconductor plants and electric car and battery projects like

the one GM and Samsung are building. Total construction spending

on manufacturing plants grew from $5.9 billion in February 2021

to a peak of $20.8 billion in October of 2024, according to the

Bureau of Labor Statistics, but fell to $17 billion by December

of 2025.

"I don't know if I'd call it a revival," said Jon Ferguson,

CFO of Master Roll Manufacturing, which operates a plant that

overlooks Amazon's ( AMZN ) massive data center site outside South Bend.

Even though the company makes and reconditions steel processing

equipment parts, Ferguson said sales are steady, not booming.

Meanwhile having so much development nearby is a headache.

The surge in land prices has pushed up property taxes, he said,

while electricity and water costs have increased. It's nice for

land to appreciate, he said, but it doesn't mean much if they're

not looking to sell.

"A lot of companies in the area are upset with how (the data

center boom) is falling out," he said.

Some companies have struggled to find skilled workers to

install or repair new production lines at existing facilities,

since so much labor has been soaked up by construction.

Daniel Adams, CEO of Manufacturing Technology Inc., also

sees a mixed bag for manufacturers. His great-grandfather

started the business as a tool and die shop in 1926 and the

company more recently carved a profitable niche in friction

welding, a process used to make everything from golf putters to

jet engines. He said since Trump came in, it's become clear that

EVs will be less important, which has cut into his auto-related

business. "There's an investment pause by car companies and

tier-one (auto suppliers)," he said.

Adams said his aerospace customers are doing well-but that's

not enough to push the whole business forward.

Bringing new industry into the area is good for his business

in the long term, Adams said, but is causing short-term tension

with some other local businesses, for instance with regard to

labor. "People go to the shiny place and maybe make two dollars

(an hour) more," he said.

Back at General Stamping & Metalworks, CEO Axelberg remains

cautious. He has 25 acres adjacent to his plant that he planned

to use to expand finishing and assembly work. But that's on hold

as he's lost confidence in the current business climate.

"It's almost like there is no policy," he said. "It's like

the whims of a king."