(Reuters) -Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol earned a reputation on Wall Street as a miracle worker for wounded restaurant brands like Taco Bell and Chipotle. Nine months into his Starbucks tenure, investors are unsure if lightning will strike a third time.

Shares jumped more than 21% on August 13, the day Niccol was named CEO, on hopes he would inject the company with new vitality after several quarters of falling sales and pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management. But demand has not yet reversed, Niccol has not shared any financial targets, and the stock remains sluggish.

Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" initiative emphasizes a simplified menu, freshly baked goods, ceramic mugs with handwritten messages, and speedier service. "The experience of the coffeehouse defines our brand," Niccol told an audience of 14,000 store managers and leaders at a packed Las Vegas stadium in June. He said the company's previous removal of around 30,000 seats in stores as it prioritized mobile orders hurt the business and would be reversed. 

Starbucks' global same-store sales declined 1% for the quarter ending March 30, the fifth straight quarterly contraction.

Analysis from research firm Placer.ai shows regular customers are coming in less often than before Niccol took over, said RJ Hottovy, head of analytical research. A Reuters review of the company's analysis derived from tens of millions of cell phone location points shows average monthly visits have declined in every month of 2025 compared to 2024. 

The average customer visited 2.4 times in February, compared to 2.48 last February. Even a small decrease spread over millions of visitors is meaningful, Placer.ai said. "You have to win that trust back," Hottovy said. Starbucks did not comment on Placer.ai's analysis.

'RESULTS WILL FOLLOW'

Niccol is accelerating staffing increases to all 11,000-plus Starbucks-owned North American stores by the end of the summer, rather than to just a third of U.S. stores, and he describes his changes as "cleaning up some things that have been done in the past while investing in what I think needs to happen," he told Reuters in Las Vegas. "The earnings results will follow."

Staffing increases will vary by store, with details to be revealed at an investor day "at some point in 2026." 

The lack of clarity is making investors hesitant. Shares have stagnated since his August 13 appointment, while the broad-market S&P 500 is up 15%. The stock's forward price-to-earnings ratio is 33.2, a higher valuation than McDonald's or Yum Brands. 

Dan Ahrens, chief executive at AdvisorShares, said his fund is currently avoiding Starbucks because of the uncertainty around the turnaround. "We're in a 'show-me' stage," he said. 

When Niccol started on September 9, a narrow majority of analysts recommended buying Starbucks stock. Now, more recommend holding or selling. TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles downgraded shares to "hold" on May 29, expecting fiscal 2026 earnings to fall short of Wall Street's consensus.

"What the Street is trying to figure out is, what's the lift in sales I'm going to get from this?" he said.

Bernstein analysts said on July 2 that the staffing surge will cost $1.5 billion to $2 billion in the next two years, but it expects it to reduce turnover and improve same-store sales. 

TURNAROUND ARTIST

Greg Flynn, a restaurant franchisee whose company owns more than 300 Taco Bells, said Niccol "gets the credit for turning that momentum forward with a relentless parade of new product innovations and exceptional advertising and promotion" as Taco Bell CEO from 2015 to 2018. 

At Chipotle, same-store sales rose from 2.2% year-over-year in March 2018 when he took over to 31% roughly three years later.

Flynn said "Back to Starbucks" follows that playbook. "Figure out what people really loved about your brand from the beginning and embrace that," he said. "It takes discipline, it takes expenses, and it always meets a lot of opposition."

There are critics in Starbucks' union, Starbucks Workers United, which represents workers at more than 600 locations.

Unionized baristas staged walk-outs at dozens of stores in June to protest new dress code restrictions Niccol introduced. Michelle Eisen, a 15-year Starbucks barista who now works for the union full-time, criticized moves such as requiring visitors to pay to use the restrooms or get water, "neither of which promote a welcoming coffeehouse atmosphere."

Starbucks said changes to its policies came out of discussions with employees and customers. 

One notable Niccol fan? Former CEO Howard Schultz, who has a history of criticizing those who succeeded him. He physically embraced Niccol on stage in Las Vegas. "I have never, in my entire life at Starbucks, been more optimistic than I am today," he said.