financetom
Business
financetom
/
Business
/
Analysis-US rare earth pricing system is poised to challenge China's dominance
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Analysis-US rare earth pricing system is poised to challenge China's dominance
Jul 14, 2025 11:09 AM

LONDON (Reuters) -U.S. efforts to break China's dominance of the rare earths market and to drive investment in its own industry have moved up a gear with a Washington-backed plan to create a separate, higher pricing system.

The West has struggled to weaken China's grip on 90% of the supply of rare earths, in part because low prices set in China have removed the incentive for investment elsewhere.

Miners in the West have long called for a separate pricing system to help them compete in supplying the rare earths group of 17 metals needed to make super-strong magnets of strategic importance. They are used in military applications such as drone and fighter jets, as well as to power motors in EVs and wind turbines.

Under a deal made public last week, the U.S. Department of Defense will guarantee a minimum price for its sole domestic rare earth miner MP Materials, at nearly twice the current market level.

Las Vegas-based MP already produces mined and processed rare earths and said it expects to start commercial magnet production at its Texas facility around the end of this year.

Analysts say the pricing deal, which takes effect immediately, should have global implications - positive for producers, but may increase costs for consumers, such as automakers and in turn their customers.

"This benchmark is now a new centre of gravity in the industry that will pull prices up," said Ryan Castilloux, managing director of consultancy Adamas Intelligence.

The DoD will pay MP the difference between $110 per kilogram for the two most-popular rare earths and the market price, currently set by China, but if the price rises above $110, the DoD will get 30% of additional profits.

Castilloux said other indirect beneficiaries of the pricing system may include companies, such as Belgian chemicals group Solvay, which launched an expansion in April.

"It will give Solvay and others the impetus to command a similar price level. It will give them a floor to stand on, you could say," Castilloux added.

While Solvay declined to comment, other rare earth miners, developers and their shareholders welcomed the news.

Aclara Resources is developing rare earths mines in Chile and Brazil, as well as planning a separation plant in the United States. Alvaro Castellon, the company's strategy and development manager, told Reuters the deal added "new strategic paths" for the company.

MP'S GRADUAL OUTPUT INCREASE

MP Materials, which suffered a net loss of $65.4 million last year largely because of China's low pricing, will build up magnet production at its Texas plant initially to 1,000 metric tons a year, later expanding to 3,000 tons a year.

Under last Thursday's deal, the DoD will become its largest shareholder with a 15% stake and MP will construct a second rare earth magnet manufacturing facility in the U.S., eventually adding 7,000 tons per year. In total, production would be 10,000 tons a year - equalling U.S. consumption of magnets in 2024.

That does not include, however, the 30,000 tons imported by the United States already installed in assembled products, Adamas consultancy said.

It predicts global demand for rare earth permanent magnets will more than double over the next decade to about 607,000 tons, with the U.S. seeing the strongest percentage annual growth rate in coming years at 17%.

The world's reliance upon China for much of this demand was brought into focus by China's curbs on its exports as trade negotiations continue between the United States and China.

So far Western governments have had little success in trying to help their own industries to compete.

Attempts to agree stronger pricing have been confined to piecemeal deals that set premiums for magnets.

Dominic Raab, a former deputy prime minister and former foreign secretary for the United Kingdom, said he was not surprised the Trump administration had concluded that tax breaks alone would not create the level of investment required.

"The next step is, can they scale it up?" asked Raab, now head of global affairs at Appian Capital Advisory, a private equity firm that invests in mining projects.

The $110 level for neodymium and praseodymium, or NdPr, guaranteed by the DoD is slightly above a $75-to-$105 per kg range that consultancy Project Blue reckons would be needed to support enough production to meet demand in coming years. It compares to a current level of about $63.

David Merriman of Project Blue said it was unclear how commercial industrial consumers would respond to higher prices and whether it would make them invest in rare earths as they have more diverse supply sources.

"Major non-government backed consumers are less likely to follow this same investment pattern, however, as they are not so clearly aligned to a particular regional supply route," he said.

A spokesperson for German auto giant Volkswagen declined to comment on pricing when asked about the DoD floor level but said: "We welcome all efforts to strengthen long-term stability and diversification in global supply chains for critical materials."

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
New Era Helium, Sharon AI JV to Acquire Texas Site for Net-Zero AI Data Center
New Era Helium, Sharon AI JV to Acquire Texas Site for Net-Zero AI Data Center
Feb 27, 2025
03:08 PM EST, 02/27/2025 (MT Newswires) -- New Era Helium ( NEHC ) and Sharon AI said Thursday that their joint venture, Texas Critical Data Centers, signed a letter of intent to acquire 200 acres in Ector County, Texas, to develop a 250-megawatt net-zero energy artificial intelligence and high-performance computing data center. The joint venture signed the letter of intent...
Westamerica Bancorporation Reports Stock Buyback Plan
Westamerica Bancorporation Reports Stock Buyback Plan
Feb 27, 2025
03:01 PM EST, 02/27/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Westamerica Bancorporation (WABC) said Thursday its board has approved a plan to repurchase up to 2 million shares before March 31, 2026. The repurchase plan represents about 7.5% of its outstanding shares, the company said. Price: 51.43, Change: +1.29, Percent Change: +2.57 ...
Best Buy Expected to Report In-Line Q4 Results Accompanied by 'Balanced' Outlook, UBS Says
Best Buy Expected to Report In-Line Q4 Results Accompanied by 'Balanced' Outlook, UBS Says
Feb 27, 2025
03:08 PM EST, 02/27/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Best Buy ( BBY ) is expected to report in-line Q4 results and issue a balanced fiscal 2026 outlook, as the company will likely err on the conservative side, UBS said Thursday in a note. The Q4 results will likely show the impact of a solid holiday followed by a moderate softening in...
3M's Earnings Consensus Estimates for 2027 Likely to be Revised Upwards Following Analyst Meeting, UBS Says
3M's Earnings Consensus Estimates for 2027 Likely to be Revised Upwards Following Analyst Meeting, UBS Says
Feb 27, 2025
03:05 PM EST, 02/27/2025 (MT Newswires) -- 3M's ( MMM ) earnings consensus estimates for 2027 are likely to be revised upwards following the company's analyst meeting and proactive growth initiatives, UBS said in a note emailed Thursday. UBS said it expects consensus estimates to move up about 3% to $9.50 for 2027 earnings per share, with good potential for...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved