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Apple's iPhone Growth in China, Third-Quarter Revenue Outlook Deter Bears, Oppenheimer Says
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Apple's iPhone Growth in China, Third-Quarter Revenue Outlook Deter Bears, Oppenheimer Says
May 3, 2024 12:53 PM

03:23 PM EDT, 05/03/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Apple's ( AAPL ) second-quarter iPhone growth in China, despite an overall sales decline in the key region, helped deter bears while its outlook for the ongoing quarter implies top-line rebounding after total sales dropped 4% in the March quarter, Oppenheimer said Friday.

The brokerage reiterated an outperform rating and a $200 price target on the stock, pointing to Apple's ( AAPL ) "solid results and guidance against a tough macro backdrop." Oppenheimer raised its fiscal 2024 earnings per share target to $6.59 from $6.55, a penny ahead of the average analyst estimate on Capital IQ. Shares of Apple ( AAPL ) were up 6.8% in afternoon trade.

Apple's ( AAPL ) fiscal second-quarter revenue of $90.75 billion fell less than analysts were forecasting while EPS unexpectedly rose, according to consensus estimates on Capital IQ.

"Our long-term thesis on Apple ( AAPL ) is unchanged," Oppenheimer analysts Martin Yang and Andrew Northcutt wrote in a note to clients. "The company proves to be able to grow revenue and profit despite tough macro factors and fierce competition."

Overall sales in China fell to $16.37 billion from $17.81 billion year to year, contributing the largest share among all regions to Apple's ( AAPL ) consolidated sales drop. Revenue also dropped in the Americas, Japan and Rest of Asia Pacific, while rising in Europe.

"Investors understandably focused heavily on market dynamics in China (on the conference call)," the analysts said. "However, management presented a key data point that effectively deters bears: iPhone grew in mainland China even before normalizing" a $5 billion supply chain headwind.

In the same quarter of 2023, revenue was buoyed by replenished iPhone channel inventory that enabled Apple ( AAPL ) to fulfill significant pent-up demand from COVID-related supply disruptions, leading to tough year over year comparisons, Chief Executive Tim Cook told analysts on a conference call late Thursday. "We estimate this one-time impact added close to $5

billion to the March quarter revenue last year," he said.

Apple ( AAPL ) expects third-quarter revenue to grow by a low-single digit from the same period one year earlier, Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri told analysts. That matched consensus and was "slightly better than buy-side expectations," Oppenheimer's Yang and Northcutt said.

Apple ( AAPL ) announced additional stock repurchase authorization of up to $110 billion. That was "the largest in US history," and adds to constructive China commentary and a better-than-feared outlook, the analysts said.

Price: 185.76, Change: +12.73, Percent Change: +7.35

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