SYDNEY, June 27 (Reuters) - A possible revival in IPOs
in Hong Kong after a pickup in Chinese regulatory approvals, and
a string of mega deals in India are expected to make Asia a
bright spot for equity deals in the second half of this year,
bankers and analysts said.
Despite the extended downturn in Asia initial public
offerings (IPOs), India's share in Asia equity capital market
(ECM) deals is at record high now, and the surge in deals is
expected to last for the foreseeable future, they added.
India's total ECM deals jumped 137% in the first half of
this year from the same period of last year, with $28.5 billion
raised, according to LSEG data. IPOs accounted for $4.25 billion
of that, up 89.3% on last year's first half.
Hyundai India's $2.5 billion to $3 billion IPO
due later in 2024 is set to be the South Asian country's largest
ever new share sale, and it would also be one of the biggest
IPOs globally this year.
In comparison, elsewhere in Asia, mainland Chinese ECM deals
dropped nearly 70% to be worth $25.5 billion and IPOs were off
83.1% to $5.3 billion, the worst first half performance in 11
years.
The value of IPOs in Hong Kong fell from $2.12 billion in
the first half of 2023 to $1.46 billion, the LSEG data showed.
"As investors get to grips with India's growth outlook and
the growth adjusted valuations, helped further by the monetary
easing environment, it will spur foreign investors to come
back," said Citigroup Asia ECM origination head Udhay Furtado.
"That pivot to India growth is a staggered rotation. That's
why it's not been a flood. I think you'll see that change with
the names that are coming to market in the next 18 months as
they are going to be globally impactful."
While Hong Kong's IPO market remains at a low, the Hang
Seng's almost 9% rise in the past three months is seen as
a positive to encourage more public market debuts in the coming
months.
"While global investors remain cautious towards Hong Kong
and China there is improved sentiment on the back of ongoing
policy support and strong corporate earnings," said Sunil
Dhuphelia, JPMorgan's co-head of Asia ECM, ex-Japan.
"This has led to global investors reducing underweight
positions in the past couple of months," he said, referring to
the two markets.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has
approved applications from 76 IPO hopefuls so far this year to
list offshore, compared to 80 for all of 2023, according to the
regulator's website.
Some Chinese companies, however, still find the process of
gaining approval uncertain and volatile markets means some do
not go ahead with launching a deal, bankers said.
"If the broader market valuation increases, you will see a
lot more follow-on deals and blocks in Hong Kong from China -
that will come first," said Selina Cheung, UBS' co-head of Asia
equity capital markets.
"Hopefully we are on the right upward trend with the right
policy supports. When the market is sufficiently strong,
hopefully, the CSRC will have a relaxation towards approving
IPOs."