BERLIN/BEIJING, April 12 (Reuters) - Last year Germany
launched a strategy to "de-risk" from China, but on Saturday
Chancellor Olaf Scholz starts a high-stakes visit there hoping
to shore up ties at a delicate point with the U.S. and EU
threatening to hammer Chinese goods in subsidy rows.
With the German economy in the doldrums, its companies are
pressing for fairer access to a Chinese market which they feel
still discriminates heavily in favour of local firms despite
promises to the contrary.
At the same time, China will likely press Berlin not to fall
in behind threatened European Union measures against its cars,
solar and wind park equipment that Brussels feels are being
dumped on its market too cheaply.
China's own economy is also struggling, hit by another
ratings outlook downgrade this week and its factories blamed for
producing more goods than they can sell locally.
Looming over the visit is the prospect of the return of
Donald Trump to the White House, who has threatened to hike
trade tariffs on all countries including Germany.
With the prospect of U.S. aid to Kyiv looking shakier,
Scholz will also likely push China on its support for Russia's
wartime economy as Russian forces continue to pound Ukrainian
cities two years into the invasion.
Scholz, on a previous visit in 2022, trumpeted persuading
President Xi Jinping to warn Russia off using nuclear weapons.
"The Europeans urgently need to clarify how they can
position themselves as a pole between the USA and China and not
be crushed between their conflicts," said Maximilian Butek, the
head of the German Chamber of Commerce in eastern China.
"There is still no solution as to how to protect your own
market without risking giving up your China business at the same
time."
Scholz's government has become wary of tethering Germany to
the Chinese economy after the invasion of Ukraine exposed
Europe's reliance on Russian gas exports and fuelled a
cost-of-living crisis.
Three studies published by German institutions this week
highlight other German concerns.
One study showed nearly two-thirds of companies feel
discriminated against in the Chinese market, with the rise of
local firms also eating into profits and market share.
A second by the Kiel Institute estimated China's subsidies
for its firms range between three to nine times that of other
OECD countries such as the U.S. or Germany.
But at the same time, efforts by the German economy to
diversify from China have been patchy, a third study showed, and
other measures, such as moves by Berlin to curb use of Huawei
equipment from German networks, have yet to
materialise.
Scholz's government had last July produced a 64-page
strategy document outlining China's increasing assertiveness,
"unfair practices" and the risks to supply chains in a potential
conflict over Taiwan.
BUILDING TRUST
Scholz takes with him CEOs from some of Germany's most
prominent companies such as Siemens and Mercedes
, as well as three cabinet ministers, underscoring
Beijing's importance.
"The EU has been preparing restrictions against China's
green energy exports, seemingly with France at the vanguard,"
said Shi Yinhong, Professor at the School of International
Studies, Renmin University of China.
"At this juncture, making Germany - which has been inclined
to follow its allies in China-related trade restrictions but is
still quite hesitant and slow - oppose it in this period is
really important for China's rearguard actions."
The chancellor will travel to Shanghai and Chongqing as well
as the capital and meet President Xi and Premier Li Qiang.
Mikko Huotari, head of the Merics Institute in Berlin, calls
it a "re-engaging" and stabilising of relations. He urged Scholz
to emphasise that Germany has a special role within the EU and
does not want Brussels to take tough action in trade disputes.
Scholz's trip will likely be followed by visits to China by
Economy Minister Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena
Baerbock, who only last year angered Beijing by calling
President Xi a "dictator".
"Some countries in the West and the United States say
de-risking when they mean removing China. Risks need to be
managed and not removed," said Victor Gao, chair professor at
Soochow University.
"I believe China will emphasise to Germany that it should
not listen to other countries and embrace peace (regarding
Ukraine). It will probably also emphasise that there is no other
market in the world that can replace China, and that China is
now the world leader in many advanced technologies."
China had in March pledged to treat foreign and domestic
companies equally but German businesses reacted with scepticism
and asked for concrete steps.
However, they are also wary that an escalating trade war
between China and the West could rebound on their own
investments in the world's second biggest economy.
The EU also faces a dilemma, as it could benefit from cheap
solar and wind products for example to further its climate
goals, but risks damaging its own industries as a result.
"I think all sides are lacking trust, so the visit is seen
as a good sign from the Chinese," German Chamber of Commerce's
Butek said.
"We insist on open markets because this is essential to our
survival. The price of losing the market here is way too high
than what we gain from import tariffs on Chinese goods."
(Writing by Matthias Williams; Editing by Muralikumar
Anantharaman)