NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) -
Independent hotel operators and giant global chains are
increasingly linking up in franchise agreements as high-interest
rates have slammed the hospitality industry, slowing down new
hotel construction.
For big chains, new franchise agreements from conversions
keep investors happy by opening new hotels in the short term.
Meanwhile, independent, unbranded hotels like switching to
franchise agreements because it gives them greater access to
potential bookings and cheaper financing from lenders.
"Historically, global conversions have been 10% to 20% of
the rooms entering the system, today it is probably closer to
40%," said Patrick Scholes, Truist equity analyst.
For U.S.-based Marriott International ( MAR ), conversions
in 2023 accounted for 40% of organic room signings, double the
20% rate a year earlier. Half of France-based Accor's
hotel openings last year were through conversions. That matches
trends across the industry.
"In a climate where the debt markets for new construction
are somewhat constricted, the importance of conversions is
elevated," Marriott's ( MAR ) CEO Anthony Capuano said on an earnings
call earlier this year.
Hotel operators benefited from the surge in "revenge travel"
as the pandemic receded. However, the economic rebound also
brought higher interest rates - making life more difficult for
smaller operators who rely on capital borrowing to fund their
operations.
Roughly 1,980 hotels opened in 2023, down from 2,730 in
2019, according to hotel development intelligence firm Lodging
Econometrics.
"Access to hotel financing, especially in South America, is
currently limited since many hotels faced difficulties in
meeting their debts during the pandemic," said Fernanda
L'Hopital, South America director of consulting and valuation at
hospitality consulting firm HVS.
A branded hotel may be more appealing to owners refinancing
loans or facing a "wall of maturities" that were pushed back,
said Robin Farley, UBS equity analyst.
Approximately $217 billion in hotel loans are slated to
mature globally by 2025, said Zach Demuth, JLL global head of
hotels and hospitality research.
Those loans are likely to be refinanced at higher interest
rates. In the U.S., interest rates for new branded hotels are
between 6.75% to 8.25%, up from 5-6% before the pandemic, said
Shivan Perera, senior vice president of debts and participations
at real estate lender Avana Capital. Un-branded operators
generally have slightly higher rates between 7% and 9%.
Brand-affiliated hotels have a lower cash-flow risk than
independent hotels, according to a 2022 Cornell University study
based on 4,000 hotels over 20 years.
"Good brands, their loyalty program, their reservation
system, typically will help a property perform better and so a
lender will often have that as a requirement," UBS' Farley said.
In Europe, real estate interest rates are trending at around
6% and 8%, up from 2.5% to 3% before the pandemic, said Tim
Barbrook, head of debt advisory at HVS London. For branded
hotels, rates are about 0.25% lower.
"Some people have had 13 years of extremely low-cost money,
said Barbrook. "They're coming off fixed rate loans into this
much-higher rate environment. Many of our clients wish they
could simply extend the facilities that they already have."
Large operators have launched "soft" and conversion brands
aimed at picking up independents. Those brands help boost net
unit growth, analysts said.
Hilton's franchise and licensing fee revenue rose 14.6%
year-over-year in 2023 and 38.5% in 2022, while Marriott's ( MAR ) were
up 13% in 2023 and 40% in 2022.
"Every couple 100 or 1,000 more rooms matter because there's
a franchise fee associated with it," said Jan Freitag, director
of U.S. hospitality at analytics firm CoStar ( CSGP ).
One such brand is Hilton's "Spark" chain, announced in
January 2023. For smaller operators, a conversion gives them
access to guests who exclusively rely on the chains' loyalty
programs to book rooms.
"We would have never done [the conversion] if we couldn't
have done it with Hilton," said Lou Carrier, chief executive of
Distinctive Hospitality Group, a development firm that opened
the first Spark Hotel in Connecticut. "Within the first two
months over 45% of that hotel's guests were Hilton Honors
members. That was remarkable to me."