HOUSTON, May 5 (Reuters) - As Big Oil returns this week
to the industry's annual showcase for offshore energy projects
and equipment in Houston, deepwater discoveries off Guyana,
Namibia and the U.S. Gulf Coast will take the spotlight.
Offshore exploration had dimmed after the U.S. shale boom
ushered in new and cheaper-to-tap supplies of oil, and as past
offshore cost overruns pushed deepwater projects onto the
industry's backburner.
Newer deepwater projects have the attributes oil and gas
companies are looking for: longer-term production, lower
breakeven costs, big resource potentials and lower carbon
emissions, said Pablo Medina, head of new ventures at energy
consultants Welligence.
"Deepwater is back in vogue," Medina said.
Capital spending on all-new deepwater drilling is poised to
hit a 12-year high next year, predicts consultancy Rystad
Energy. Investment in all-new and existing deepwater fields
could hit $130.7 billion in 2027, a 30% jump over 2023, it said.
"The return of offshore and deepwater operations is going to
be a big topic at OTC, and Namibia is going to be talk of the
show," said James West, senior managing director at financial
firm Evercore, referring to the recent series of oil finds off
the west African coast.
FASTER PAYBACK PERIODS
With crude oil prices above $70 a barrels, energy producers
can expect a return on their multi-billion-dollar deepwater
projects in six years, a relatively short period considering the
wells' longer lives compared with shale, explained Matt Hale,
vice president of supply chain research at Rystad, at the Rystad
Energy Forum in Houston last month.
Deepwater resources also offer lower carbon emissions
intensity than shale and other tight oils, averaging 2kg of
carbon dioxide per barrel less than shale, Hale said. That
appeals to investors seeking safer bets as environmental
regulations tighten.
Enthusiasm for offshore has climbed with discoveries and
technology breakthroughs. Namibia's Mopane is forecast to hold
as much as 10 billion barrels of oil, Portuguese oil company
Galp Energia said last month.
Chevron ( CVX ) and TotalEnergies have made a breakthrough in
ultra-high pressure environments with their Anchor project in
the Gulf of Mexico, the world's first to operate at
once-unfathomable 20,000 pounds per square inch (psi) pressures.
The Anchor platform is preparing to start production off the
Louisiana coast, and at its peak will produce up to 75,000
barrels per day (bpd) of crude and operate for 30 years.
The Stabroek block off the coast of Guyana has demonstrated
the potential for low cost production that rivals the best
deepwater fields elsewhere.
Over the next six years, more than half of its recoverable
resources are expected pump at a breakeven price of less than
$30 per barrel, according to Rystad. That is comparable to the
breakeven on about 80% of deepwater recoverable resources off
Norway, Rystad estimates.
Renewed interest in deepwater has boosted demand and results
for offshore drilling contractors. Rates for some vessels have
surpassed $500,000 a day and contract durations are lengthening
as vessel supply dwindles.
"We are reaching this crescendo over the next 18 months or
so where the (deepwater rig) market will level out," said Leslie
Cook, upstream supply chain analyst at consultants Wood
Mackenzie.