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BlueBay, other hedge funds turn focus to bank, bond and oil trades under Trump
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BlueBay, other hedge funds turn focus to bank, bond and oil trades under Trump
Nov 9, 2024 11:35 AM

LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Hedge funds including BlueBay

were turning their attentions to crude oil, U.S. Treasuries,

tech and U.S. banks on Wednesday, after Donald Trump was elected

president.

Trump's victory gives him a clear mandate to implement his

policy agenda, which includes plans to cut U.S. corporate taxes,

said Russel Matthews, lead portfolio manager of BlueBay's macro

hedge fund in London, part of the $468 billion asset manager RBC

Global Asset Management.

A macro hedge fund uses financial instruments to make bets

on the economic health of a country.

As U.S. Treasury yields climbed to four-month highs in the

wake of the election result, Matthews said he had seen "glimmers

of bond vigilantism being back," in a reference to investors

dumping or shorting government debt over worries about higher

borrowing. A short bet expects asset values to decline.

U.S. Treasury prices fell sharply on Wednesday as yields

rose - 30-year yields hit a roughly six-month high of 4.68%

.

"Irresponsible fiscal policies and growing debt piles -

there is a point at which the market just starts to revolt

against that," said Matthews.

BlueBay's hedge fund strategy as of Wednesday, was short

30-year U.S. Treasuries and long 10-year German Bunds

, he said, adding the firm was long the dollar and

short the euro and pound .

The dollar was up almost 2% against a basket of

currencies, and on track for its biggest one-day jump in four

years.

A steeper bond yield curve might aid undervalued finance

firms like Citigroup ( C/PN ), said Matein Khalid, chief investment

officer of family office Phoenix Holdings in Dubai.

Banks will likely benefit from easier financial regulations

on capital, risk management, asset management and mergers and

acquisitions which have been floated as possible Trump policies,

Khalid added.

Nick Ferres, CIO of Vantage Point Asset Management in

Singapore agreed and added that Asia-Pacific banks would also

benefit from growth and higher yields under Trump.

Whereas in the long run, tech stocks may fare differently,

suggested Dan Taylor chief investment officer of Man Numeric, a

fund within the $174.9 billion hedge fund Man Group ( MNGPF ).

The so-called "Magnificent 7" biggest tech firms, whose

stocks have benefited in the last two years from positive

sentiment from not only hedge funds but investors, globally

might face headwinds under a Trump presidency, said Taylor.

"One would think less regulation would be good for big tech

companies, but they may end up the exception if Trump and policy

makers see them as too powerful and hostile to national

interest," he told Reuters.

"It wouldn't be a stretch to imagine one of them being

broken up. There is precedent for that in the U.S., in terms of

large companies seen as pseudo monopolies getting broken up. We

could see this again."

'DRILL, DRILL, DRILL'

Trump's support of the oil industry, including easing

environmental regulations, could result in lower crude oil

prices.

"Trump has said he will 'drill, drill, drill,' which will

increase U.S. supply," said Sam Berridge, a portfolio manager at

the Strategic Natural Resources Fund, a part of the larger A$7

billion ($4.61 billion) Perennial Value Management, in Perth,

Australia.

"A balancing factor may be a more aggressive stance on Iran

oil exports should the U.S. impose stiffer sanctions. This would

be supportive for oil prices but it's difficult to say by how

much as most of Iran's oil exports go to China," he said.

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