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BMO Doubts Canadians Will Travel More to The U.S. If Gasoline Prices Drop
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BMO Doubts Canadians Will Travel More to The U.S. If Gasoline Prices Drop
Mar 24, 2026 4:20 AM

06:47 AM EDT, 03/24/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canadians continued to shy away from United States travel in January, ahead of gasoline-price-related headwinds to cross-border travel in the coming months, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Canadian travel to the U.S. has barely budged since April 2025, the peak of tariff uncertainty -- though keen eyes will notice the decline really began a few months before, when Canada initially faced threats of tariffs and even annexation, noted the bank.

The persistent weakness is notable, at less than three-quarters of 2024 levels, even as some uncertainty has dissipated and the bilateral relationship has improved from last year's chilliness, stated BMO.

Compare that with U.S. travel into Canada, which also dipped in the spring of 2025 -- although not nearly as much -- and snapped back quickly, pointed out the bank.

January is now the first month with northward travel back above 2024 levels, it added.

The dramatic spike in gasoline prices will likely weigh on travel, in both directions, starting in March, according to BMO. Still, even if those prices recover, it looks unlikely that Canadian travel to the U.S. will normalize until the political and economic relationship truly thaws.

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