08:15 AM EDT, 08/26/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian retail sales jumped 1.5% month over month in June, marking a decent turnaround from May's 1.2% decline, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The June pace matched the increase in volume terms, leaving the three-month gain near 3% annualized, noted the bank.

Not bad for a quarter that likely captured the worst of the economic hit from trade uncertainty, stated BMO.

To be sure, decent consumer spending in both goods and services likely provided some offset for a deeply negative print in net exports, pointed out the bank. Still, BMO doesn't think it'll be enough to avoid a real gross domestic product contraction in Q2 when that report is released at the end of the week.

As mentioned, though, this quarter will hopefully be the worst of it for the economy. It's still early, but BMO is forecasting real GDP to be little changed in Q3, implying a recession will be narrowly avoided.

Indeed, the first look at July pointed to a 0.8% month-over-month nominal decline in retail sales, while the flash estimates for manufacturing sales and wholesale trade will be released on Tuesday.