06:54 AM EST, 03/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- In a world where the trade environment can change
by the hour, Canadian importers and exporters took
advantage while United States tariff threats were just that
-- threats, noted Bank of Montreal (BMO).
That explains why, in January, the goods trade surplus widened to its largest since 2022, said the bank. Exports rose faster than imports, but both were subject to
additional noise from tariff front-running.
Given the tariff implementation and subsequent exemptions this week, that volatility is likely to continue for at least the first few months of the year, stated BMO.
Removing the price swings, growth in export volumes also handily outpaced imports, suggesting a solid boost to January real gross domestic product growth, added the bank. It's still very early in the quarter, but BMO suspects tariff front-running will support Q1 growth.
That could reverse sharply as soon as broad tariffs are implemented, according to the bank.