06:56 AM EDT, 08/27/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in June, weighed by lower auto sales and lower gasoline prices, said Bank of Montreal (BMO) following Friday's data.

In contrast, spending excluding autos was up a "decent" 0.3% m/m in the month. Plus, the flash estimate called for sales to bounce back 0.6% m/m in July -- overall, the details of the report were much firmer than the headline indicated, noted the bank.

Still, it is impossible to contextualize any of the recent economic data in Canada without comparing it against the historically strong population inflows, stated BMO.

This is where the softness in consumer spending is clear: even when retail sales are rising, they're doing so at a pace that's well short of population growth, pointed out the bank.

Even when rate cuts start to support a recovery in spending, BMO will be watching per capita metrics to determine the extent of the bounceback.