07:23 AM EST, 01/28/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Bank of Canada has lots to concern itself with at the rates decision this week, including the United States tariff threat, a sagging Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) and some firmness in core inflation, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

However, it also has a small puzzle on the jobs front, noted the bank. A full historic revision to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) late last week didn't change an underlying story -- there has been a big divergence between the widely followed LFS survey and the oft-overlooked payroll survey (SEPH).

Over the last 12 months, the former has reported 1.8% year-over-year growth in public and private employees, or excluding self-employment, while the latter is up just 0.7%.

That gap is no fluke; over the past five years -- since just before the pandemic -- the LFS has averaged 2.2% growth versus 1.3% for the payroll survey, almost 1 ppt spread for five years.

The difference is surprising and runs in the opposite direction seen in the U.S. dual surveys -- where payrolls

are up 1.4% year over year versus 0.3% for the household survey, stated BMO.

The bank suspects that Canada's fiery population growth in

recent years may be behind the gap, along with a rise

in informal work -- which may be captured in the LFS, but not the payroll survey.