07:45 AM EDT, 04/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release gross domestic product for February and preliminary March data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The bank noted that the depths of winter weren't friendly for the Canadian economy. Winter storms throughout the country kept some from working, reflected in the sharp decline in hours worked and perhaps the drop in payroll jobs. Wholesale and manufacturing volumes were little changed, but retail sales slipped as consumers pulled back somewhat following the end of the tax holiday.

Meanwhile, United States tariff concerns were ramping up through the month, driving consumer and business confidence sharply lower, stated BMO. That's not a friendly combination for GDP growth.

The bank is looking for a 0.1% month-over-month contraction in February GDP, with the March flash estimate is expected to see a deeper decline as tariffs came into effect. That would leave Q1 GDP growth around 1.5% annualized but set up a much weaker Q2.

BMO also pointed out that the Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada's April 16 policy meeting will be published at 1:30 p.m. ET and will be scoured for hints on what could prompt further cuts. The BoC held policy rates steady after cutting at the seven prior meetings. Governor Tiff Macklem stressed that policy was unchanged due to the uncertainty around the economic outlook.

Upside inflation risks remain top of mind for the BoC, but there's no denying that U.S. tariffs will likely weigh heavily on the economy. The latter is expected to prompt further cuts from the BoC, and the bank will be looking for potential triggers in this release.

Both the US dollar (USD) and Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) are little changed so far on Wednesday, added BMO.