07:28 AM EDT, 05/09/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Investors will get Canada's Labour Force Survey (LFS) for April at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday as the lone piece of key data, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

This early April data is where Canada is potentially going to start seeing some of the impact of the trade war with the United States really starting to bite the harder economic data, so forecasters and policymakers will be on high alert, noted the bank.

The tariff chaos of early April, combined with tariffs already in place on steel/aluminium and non-USMCA products, likely weighed on the Canadian economy and labor market, stated BMO. The uncertainty alone is enough to prompt many businesses to pause hiring, with some downsizing in tariff-hit sectors -- the bank is looking for a flat reading.

However, the headline figure will probably be a bit misleading as the federal election hiring will provide a solid lift -- the bank estimated around a 25,000 boost.

Unfortunately, even with that one-off positive, the unemployment rate is poised to rise another notch to 6.8%. The latter would be more indicative of the direction of the labor market, especially with labor force growth decelerating. The bank will watch hours worked, as that could provide a glimpse of how the broader economy fared in the month. Lastly, the slowing in wage growth could stall for a month as April 2024 was soft.

The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) is steady at $1.391/USD (71.9 US cents) early Friday, added BMO.