07:45 AM EDT, 05/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will get the first glimpse into spending in a tariff world when the country's March retail sales are released at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The bank is looking for a 0.7% month-over-month gain, in line with the flash estimate, but the figure will be flattered by front-running ahead of auto tariffs -- implemented in early April). That suggests spending excluding autos could decline for the first time since November.

One potential bright spot is that volumes are expected to be firmer than the headline, as goods prices were softer in the month, stated BMO.

The bank will also be watching the April flash estimate, which will capture the current United States-Canada tariff environment.

The US dollar (USD) is weaker early Friday (BBDXY -0.50%), with the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) stronger (CAD per USD -0.34%), added BMO.