07:49 AM EDT, 07/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Bank of Canada will release the policy statement and Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at 9:45 a.m. ET Wednesday, followed by the press conference with Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at 10:30 a.m. ET, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The bank noted that the BoC is widely expected to keep rates steady at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting. While the economic backdrop is relatively soft, inflation remains too high for the BoC to comfortably cut rates further.

Core inflation remains north of 3% year over year, with the short-term indicators aren't pointing to an imminent slowing. The breadth of inflation is elevated as well, improving only a touch (looking at the core components) in the latest month, stated BMO.

Meantime, uncertainty around the trade backdrop continues to be extremely high amid chatter that a deal with the United States may not be struck by the self-imposed deadline of this Friday, added the bank. That creates a sizable tail for growth and inflation risks.

The policy statement is expected to maintain the cautious tone used in June, pointed out the bank. Elsewhere, the April MPR was clouded in uncertainty, and the BoC provided two guideline scenarios. Canada seems to have avoided the worst-case scenario, which will likely allow the BoC to provide a normal set of forecasts.

BMO will look for policymakers to stress that uncertainty remains high, creating more risk -- both ways -- to their projections. For Q2 GDP, it expects a "modest" negative around 0.5% annualized (BMO is currently -0.8%), while Q3 will likely be on either side of zero (BMO is at -0.3%). The longer-term outlook looks to be subdued due to the uncertainty.

The US dollar (USD) is a bit firmer (BBDXY +0.03, with the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) slightly weaker (CAD per USD +0.12%), according to the bank.