07:41 AM EDT, 08/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release retail sales for June at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The bank noted that retail sales have been choppy, with decreases in three of the past six months -- average monthly change of just 0.2% over that period -- amid prolonged trade uncertainty.

Indeed, BMO expects spending to retrace part of May's 1.1% month-over-month decline. The bank is forecasting a 1.0% month-over-month gain in June, a bit weaker than Statistics Canada's flash estimate.

Softness in gasoline prices and auto sales will weigh on the headline -- leaving sales excluding autos a touch firmer -- while an uptick in goods prices points to a smaller increase in sales volumes. BMO will be watching the July flash estimate to see how much of the June recovery carried into the start of Q3, especially given ongoing slack in the labor market.

The US dollar (USD) is a bit firmer (BBDXY +0.04%), with the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) a shade softer (CAD per USD +0.06%), according to the bank.