07:23 AM EDT, 09/19/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release retail sales data for July and provide an advance estimate for August at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Canadian consumers likely took a step back in July, with an estimated 0.8% month-over-month decline in retail sales, retracing about half of the prior month's gain, noted the bank.

BMO's call is in line with Statistics Canada's flash estimate as gasoline prices fell and overall goods prices were little changed. A rebound in auto sales from two months of weakness adds some upside risk and suggests spending excluding autos could post a deeper drop than the headline.

With little movement on prices, volumes could also have a negative print, though the bank will be watching the nominal flash estimate for August for a better idea on how Q3 spending is shaping up.