07:30 AM EDT, 09/24/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Statistics Canada's quarterly population estimates -- out at 8:30 a.m. ET -- will surely garner some headlines on Wednesday, given the sharp slowdown in growth since non-permanent resident caps were put in place, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

As of Q1 (April 1), Canadian population growth had slowed to 1.2% year over year, the slowest non-pandemic pace since 2017, or just 0.8% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-over-quarter basis, noted the bank.

BMO recalled that population growth peaked at a "torrid" 3.2% in Q2 2024. The slowdown has come alongside a sharp turn in non-permanent resident flows, from a more than 800,000 per year pace at the height in 2024, to modest net outflows now.

If the trade war with the United States hadn't broken out, this would arguably have been the biggest economic story in Canada this year, given the widespread implications the population explosion has had on housing availability, inflation and productivity/infrastructure stress, stated the bank.

Suffice it to say that the normalization is well underway, and BMO expects that the much stricter targets will be largely maintained in the upcoming Immigration Levels Plan.

The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) starts Wednesday slightly weaker at 1.388/USD (72.1 US cents), added the bank.