07:34 AM EST, 02/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- After all the drama in what has been an eventful February so far, markets closed little changed last week -- the TSX was just 0.4% lower by Friday's close, while the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) recovered to around $1.40 (70 US cents), noted Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Over the weekend, the United States tariff threat shifted to 25% on all steel and aluminum imports, to be announced in the coming days, pointed out the bank. While it is still far from a certainty, the threat carries a "meaningful" risk to Canadian industry, especially as over 90% of Canadian aluminum exports go to the U.S.

As a consequence, the loonie has weakened to $1.43 (69.7 cents) on the additional risk, said BMO.

There are no major data out this week with the sole key event on Wednesday when investors get the Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada's January meeting, added BMO. That's the one where the BoC cut by 25 bps, in what was widely viewed as a risk-management move to guard against U.S. tariff threats.

While the tariff uncertainty remains, in many ways, as meaningful as it was then, the bank will be looking for any insight into the BoC's thinking. That said, there were plenty of unknowns then -- and now -- so it's unlikely investors will get any clear signals from this.

Monday, investors will get the Q4 Market Participants Survey from the BoC at 10:30 a.m. ET. Otherwise, the data are mostly concentrated on Friday, which is when investors will get December manufacturing sales, wholesale trade, and new motor vehicle sales, as well as the Q4 BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey, added BMO.