08:28 AM EDT, 07/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The recent United States "tariff letters" would take global trade policy part of the way back to the "chaotic" days of early April, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

However, the evidence so far points to previously announced tariffs not quite living up to their initial billing, noted the bank.

Through May of this year, the calculated tariff rate -- customs duties as a share of imports -- reached 8.8%, which is much lower than expectations of over 25% before the May 12 deal with China, stated BMO.

Whether the delayed impact is a result of tariff-affected goods not yet making their way to shelves or companies postponing price increases in the hopes that tariffs are later rolled back, it has meant a more muted effect on the U.S. economy, in other words, firmer growth, less inflation, added the bank.

Canada also appears to be getting off easier than expected, as the calculated tariff rate on Canadian exports to the U.S. fell to 1.9% in May from 2.3% in April, according to BMO. The decrease is largely attributable to finished motor vehicles seemingly avoiding auto tariffs, as

calculated tariffs on that category fell to less than 0.1% in May from 2.9% in April.

However, levies on Canada are likely headed higher because of copper tariffs and the 50% tariffs already in effect on steel and aluminum, it pointed out.