*

Passenger traffic growth forecast lowered from 4.7% to

4.2%

*

Boeing ( BA ) forecasts 43,600 new airliners needed by 2044

*

Boeing ( BA ) sees 51% of new aircraft demand from growth, not

replacements

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Boeing's ( BA ) forecast aligns closely with Airbus's revised

demand

outlook

By Dan Catchpole

June 15 (Reuters) - Boeing ( BA ) expects global demand

for air travel to increase by more than 40% by 2030, driving the

need for thousands of new jetliners in the next few years,

according to its 20-year demand forecast for commercial

airliners released Sunday ahead of the Paris Airshow.

The company expects demand for 43,600 new airliners through

2044. That is essentially the same as last year's edition, which

projected demand for 43,975 new deliveries through 2043.

European rival Airbus last week revised up its own

20-year commercial demand forecast by 2% to 43,420 jets, saying

the air transport industry was expected to ride out current

trade tensions.

Boeing's ( BA ) delivery projection includes nearly 33,300

single-aisle airliners, just over 7,800 widebody jets, 955

factory-built freighters and 1,545 regional jets. Single-aisle

jets include the 737 MAX and competitor Airbus's A320neo family

and make up roughly four of every five deliveries now.

While Boeing's ( BA ) deliveries projection is roughly the same, it

pared down its 20-year forecast for passenger traffic growth

from 4.7% in last year's outlook to 4.2% this year. Likewise, it

lowered its global economic growth forecast from 2.6% to 2.3%,

cargo traffic growth from 4.1% to 3.7% and fleet growth from

3.2% to 3.1%.

Despite the lower projection for cargo traffic, Boeing ( BA ) Vice

President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst told reporters in

a briefing that trade volatility is not expected to

significantly shift long-term demand.

"I think we need to point back to the perspective that the

last 20, 40, 60 years have given us in terms of the value of air

cargo, and the fact that it's roughly a 4% growth market through

all this time," he said.

Since COVID-19, air travel demand has bounced back, but

airplane production is only half or even less than what it was

before the pandemic, resulting in a shortage of 1,500 to 2,000

airliners, he said.

Both Airbus and Boeing ( BA ) have struggled to return aircraft

production to pre-pandemic levels. Boeing ( BA ) has been dealing with

production safety concerns following a 2024 mid-air blowout of a

panel on a nearly new Alaska Airlines 737 MAX. As a result, the

U.S. Federal Aviation Administration capped 737 production at 38

airplanes a month.

Boeing ( BA ) has significantly improved production quality in recent

months, but the crash of an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner on

Thursday put it back in crisis mode. CEO Kelly Ortberg cancelled

his plans to attend the Paris Airshow in order to assist with

the crash investigation.

Global air travel is projected to increase by more than 40% by

2030, compared to the pre-pandemic high, according to the

forecast.

During the next 20 years, Boeing ( BA ) expects about 51% of demand

for new aircraft to come from growth rather than replacing older

airplanes.

China and South/Southeast Asia, which includes India, are

expected to account for half of that additional capacity,

according to the outlook. North America and Eurasia account for

more than half of projected deliveries for replacing older

aircraft.

China makes up an estimated 10% of Boeing's ( BA ) existing order

backlog. The country paused taking delivery of new Boeing ( BA )

aircraft as China and the U.S. clashed over tariffs. However,

deliveries are expected to resume this month, Ortberg said in

May during an investors conference.