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Last year's edition saw peak oil demand in 2025

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Renewables to overtake coal share in energy mix by 2040

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Natural gas demand set to grow almost 20% by 2040

(Adds detail on evolving share of renewables in energy mix in

paragraph 18, on oil production in paragraph 9)

By Stephanie Kelly and Shadia Nasralla

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - BP said on Thursday

it expects global oil demand to grow until 2030, five years

later than its forecast a year ago, pointing to slowed efforts

to increase energy efficiency and reduce global carbon

emissions.

The oil major's latest Energy Outlook, an annual study of

energy trends through 2050, models two scenarios.

The "Current Trajectory" scenario is based on existing

policies and pledges. Its "Below 2-Degrees" scenario, a

reference to the aim of limiting global warming to less than 2

degrees Celsius in line with Paris Agreement goals, envisions

about a 90% drop in carbon emissions by 2050 from 2023 levels.

Emissions are largely the result of burning oil, natural gas

and coal.

The following are highlights from the report:

OIL DEMAND, OIL PRODUCTION

Global oil demand is expected to hit 103.4 million barrels

per day (bpd) by 2030 in BP's Current Trajectory, before falling

to 83 million bpd by 2050.

BP's report last year had forecast demand peaking by 2025 at

around 102 million bpd, but slowing efficiency gains have

changed the picture.

If weak energy efficiency gains persist, oil demand

increases to about 106 million bpd by 2035.

In its Below 2-Degrees scenario, oil demand peaks this year

at 102.2 million bpd before falling to 33.8 million bpd by 2050.

In the Current Trajectory, U.S. onshore production is

broadly flat at around 15 million bpd over the first half of the

outlook. Brazil and Guyana see the largest increases, reaching

about 5 million bpd and 2 million bpd respectively by 2035.

CARBON EMISSIONS

In the Current Trajectory, CO2 equivalent emissions stay

broadly flat to 2030, then fall by about 25% by 2050 from 2023

levels.

In the Below 2-Degrees scenario, emissions drop 90%, driven

by faster decarbonisation in emerging economies.

NATURAL GAS AND LNG DEMAND

In the Current Trajectory, natural gas demand grows to

around 4,800 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2040, up by around

17% from current levels, boosted by China, India and other Asian

and Middle Eastern countries, then plateaus at that level.

The European Union's imports of Russian pipeline gas fall by

around 50% to 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) and stay at that

level for decades to come.

Exports of liquefied natural gas, which BP uses as a gauge

for demand for the fuel, increase to around 900 bcm by 2035 in

the Current Trajectory, with more than 50% of those supplies

coming from the U.S. and the Middle East.

BP rival Shell has pegged LNG demand by 2040 at

between 630 million and 718 million metric tons a year, or

around 860 to 980 bcm.

ELECTRICITY, AI AND RENEWABLES

Global electricity demand in the Current Trajectory scenario

rises to over 40,000 terrawatt hours over the coming decade, up

around 40% from 2023 levels, boosted by China and India.

By 2050 it roughly doubles, driven mainly by huge leaps in

the electrification of transport. Over half of power generation

will come from wind and solar by then.

Renewables are set to overtake coal's share in the energy

mix in 2040, oil around 2045 and gas by 2050.